That hansoair site is'nt official BTW, 'tis a fan-made site...

I think it's generally accepted that Gary Troup was the guy who got sucked into the turbine, some at The Fuselage asked Gregg Nations and he said...

quote:

That's the premise I've been going on. I don't think there will be a big reveal of it, or any story related to him. I think it's just a nice connection (well, as nice as someone being killed by being sucked up into a jet engine) to a very memorable moment from the pilot.

Gregg Nations is the script coordinator for LOST, one of TPTB...

quote:

Originally posted by Richardstone:
That hansoair site is'nt official BTW, 'tis a fan-made site...

I think it's generally accepted that Gary Troup was the guy who got sucked into the turbine, some at The Fuselage asked Gregg Nations and he said...

quote:

That's the premise I've been going on. I don't think there will be a big reveal of it, or any story related to him. I think it's just a nice connection (well, as nice as someone being killed by being sucked up into a jet engine) to a very memorable moment from the pilot.

Gregg Nations is the script coordinator for LOST, one of TPTB...

Cheers Richardstone,

I did wonder about that site As The Hugh McIntyre quotes don't make sense chronologically.

I have to confess to being a little disappointed if GT is the turbine man. I far prefer the idea that Hanso needed him dead so made sure by poison, rather than bring him to the island, where he survives the crash with the losties who have been chosen to survive and then he randomly steps to close to turbine and gets shredded.

I'm gutted. Cheers for posting the quote anyway.

There's still the connection to Cindy...

I did have an idea that the pregnancy test actually belonged to Cindy, maybe that's why the others took herm she could be pregnant...

Pure speculation on my part though, hopefully we'll find out what happened to Cindy sometime after she went missing in The Other 48 Days...

Apollo rising,

I like the theory with the magnetic reversals: it makes it possible that the electromagnetic 'thing' inside the Swan Station is intended to save the World.

The Sun is basically an enormous fusion bomb continually spewing out charged particles, and a Solar Storm carries more energy than the human race has generated in it's entire history. The Earth's magnetic field funnels these particles towards the North and South Poles, creating the aurorae (Northern Lights).

Solar storms don't reach the ground (they just create aurorae), so they wouldn't be the end of life on Earth. But their damaging effect on communications and power distribution are already appreciated, and their potential effect on computers is a threat.

So a big Solar Storm, at a time when the Earth's magnetic field is weakened, could bring about "The End Of Civilisation As We Know It". Destroying communications, cutting off power supplies, and frying computer systems (affecting everything from financial records to air traffic control). This is called the end of the 'World' because it would be like Mad Max!

The electromagnetic 'thingy' in the Swan station is intended to create a temporary protective magnetic field for the Earth, during a vulnerable period. If it was a 'one-shot only' device, you obviously wouldn't want to set it off unnecessarily, as it would be wasted.

So perhaps The Incident cocked the 'thingy' trigger, and it takes 108 minutes to build up enough power to FIRE. The 'thingy' is on permanent standby and, due to a design flaw or damage to the controls during The Incident, the only opportunity to prevent the trigger from being pulled is during the final 4 minutes of, "Are you sure you want to ... Fire Thingy?" time.

The numbers relate to stages in the 'thingy' power build up, and have to be entered correctly to prevent the 'thingy' getting out of control (like the numbers for the lock of a safe door). Over the years, these numbers have acquired mystical status due to their importance, long after their function has been forgotten. They have been used all over the place because constant reminders mean that people will never forget them.

All the other stuff about the island are survival plans B, C, D, etc., just in case plan A - the 'thingy' doesn't work.

PS.
I have a degree in Planetary and Space Physics, and another one in Spacecraft Technology. I worked on spacecraft missions that studied both the Earth and the Sun's magnetic field. I also carried out research on the interaction of the Earth's magnetosphere with the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (the stuff that spews out from the Sun).

So I know what I'm talking about, and can tell you with total confidence that the science I described in the previous post was, essentially, cobblers.

Hi Hootin Heck

I'm rubbing my sides now. Great post but what a wind up. I was totally buying the "thingy" trigger and staged power build up.

Do you believe that this could essentially be the plot, even if its based on cod science? It would tie together many threads of story so far and gives the island discernable purpose.

Perhaps you could enlighten us with some cold hard facts regarding "the interaction of the Earth's magnetosphere with the Interplanetary Magnetic Field". I'm interested in what the real implications of polar reversal of the magnetosphere are.

quote:

Originally posted by Apollo Rising:

quote:

Originally posted by Richardstone:
There's still the connection to Cindy...

I did have an idea that the pregnancy test actually belonged to Cindy, maybe that's why the others took herm she could be pregnant...

Pure speculation on my part though, hopefully we'll find out what happened to Cindy sometime after she went missing in The Other 48 Days...

Oops trigger happy there.

Hmm... yeah Cindy pregnant is interesting, she's more likely to have a tie-in with it's Widmore branding than any other survivors, also she was going about her day-to-day job and therefore more likely to have test with her than a passenger.

I'm hoping for a re-appearance from Cindy. I'd like to see a flashback from just before the flight.

quote:

Do you believe that this could essentially be the plot, even if its based on cod science?

Hello Apollo,

Yeah, it could be. What I like is that it would reverse the whole 'Doomsday' aspect of entering the numbers - you stop entering them in order to save the world, not destroy it. Would be even better if doing so meant the destruction of the island and death of everyone on it!

But I only thunk it up while reading your theory, trying to come up with a practical reality underneath all the mysteries. I heard it on LOST Radio, but all I understood from that was Iain Lee was very confused.

As for the science, all the stuff about the Sun, Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Earth's magnetosphere and Auraurae is real science. The stuff about communications, power supplies and computer components are genuine fears - genuine enough for real scientists to use them in funding applications anyway. If you google 'space weather', you'll probably turn up something more accessible than I'd give you. Solar Storms have caused power blackouts in the past - and population explosions 9 months later!

The stuff about my qualifications and research experience is also true. The Earth's MF is like a bar magnet; did you ever do that thing with a magnet under a sheet of paper and pour iron filings on it to see the field lines? Those field lines have a sort of elastic property - they can stretch and contract.

Where the Interplanetary MF meets the Earth's MF, the field lines push up against each other, forming something like the wave created by a ship ploughing through water. It's difficult to explain without a diagram, but eventually the Interplanetary MF lines 'break' where they meet the Earth's MF lines, which also 'break'. Then one part of the IMF line 'joins' the part of the earth's MF line which goes down to the North Pole, and the other part of the IMF line joins the part of the EMF line that goes down to the South Pole. You then have two MF lines which look like the elastic in a stretched catapult just as you release it - and they behave in the same way, firing charged particles down towards the poles and creating auraura.

That's what I researched. Imagine one catapult with a thin, weedy elastic, and another one with a thick, strong elastic. If you stretch both of them the same distance, one of them will shoot rocks further than the other. So you can learn something about the elastic that way. I sort of did the same thing, but using a radar to study Solar particles being shot into the North Pole, and work out what that said about the 'elasticity' of the Earth's MF.

However, typically for science, everything is about to change. When the Voyager and Pioneer spacecraft cross the boundary between the Interplanetary MF and the InterSTELLAR MF ('between the stars', rather than 'between the planets'), they see things that require a different, better explanation.

The 'real implications' of a reversal in the Earth's magnetic field? Nobody knows! Geomagneticists would tell you that the Earth's MF is generated by electric currents circulating in the Earth's molten core (which is also radioactive and HOT) - like an electrical transformer. But they don't understand how. A reversal of the Earth's MF - you'd imagine that would be associated with something pretty catastrophic and life-threatening!

quote:

Apparently similar to other equations that predict the likelyhood of life on other planets!

So that was you again, Apollo.

This is the Drake equation, thought up by Frank Drake. It's pretty simple, and goes like this...

Say there are a 100 million stars in the galaxy. If 1% of stars have planets, then there are a million stars with planets.
If 1% of those planetary systems have planets like Earth (suitable for life), then there are 10,000 Earth-like planets.
If 1% of Earth-like planets actually have life, then there are 100 planets with life.
If 1% of planets with life evolve intelligent life, then there is 1 planet with intelligent life.

That'd be us!

There are more factors in the original (and subsequent) equations, and you can vary the numbers depending on what you know about the universe, or what your prejudices are. I think Frank Drake started out with 10%, which he thought was erring on the side of caution. But for instance, some people propose that we evolved intelligence as a result of having a relatively large Moon. I forget the explanation, but you've got to do some work yourself!

However...

Regarding the Valenzetti equation, you'd do well to look up Lewis Fry Richardson, who co-founded the mathematical study of conflict and war.

Among other things, he looked at how long you have to wait for a conflict that would kill X many people. He found an exponential (accelerating) progression from about one week until the next murder, a few years between 'skirmishes' that cost a hundred or so lives, a few decades for one that kills thousands, and a few centuries for one that slaughters millions. Those numbers probably aren't right, but you get the idea.

During the cold war, these ideas were quite famous because people extrapolated them to predict Nuclear Armageddon, a serious worry in the days of Mutually Assured Destruction. It sounds like a computer game, these days.

Anyway, I don't know if anyone ever tried quantifying factors like religion, oil politics, global warming, the internet, the spread of democracy and literacy, whatever, into a single formula. But there's your basis for the subject of the Valenzetti Equation.

And, I suppose, the island, DHARMA, HANSO, it's all about surviving the inevitable APOCALYPSE!, and rebuilding civilization all over again.

PS.
L.F.Richardson, "Statistics Of Deadly Quarrels".

I love that: 'quarrels'!

So now the questions are...

What does a huge magnet have to do with saving the world?

What did DHARMA do to or with the unique electromagnetic fluctuations that they built The Swan to study, how could that have caused the incident?

What was the incident?

How does pressing the button every 108 minutes really save the world?

What's the connection between The Swan & The Valenzetti Equation?

Thanks HH,

I done a bit of reading on Drake and LF Richardson. Certainly it would seem Richardson could have been a source of inspiration when the scriptwriters came up with the Valenzetti Equation. I'll post a link for any that wish to have a peak.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Fry_Richardson#Mathematical_analysis_of_war

I agree that the main overall theme of the show will be creating a race that can survive armageddon and then re-populating. You could almost argue that Hanso aren't the bad guys after all.

Hi RS

I'll have a go at the questions. We may have to bend the science a little with faith to make it work.

A huge magnet could hypothetically be used as an E.M. shield to protect the Earth against huge solar storms, but is only required to fire when countering these storms.

The EM device could conceivably fire automatically after 108 minutes of building charge, if not "stood down" by entering the code. Thus a potentially harmful EM field could be released when there is nothing for it to counter. Possibly an "incident".

The only literal connection between The Swan & The Valenzetti Equation is that they both contain the glyphs. However, one has been designed to predict the exact moment of armageddon, whereas, the other has been designed to protect against it. One is black the other white.

Richardstone & Apollo,

The Earth's magnetic field (EMF) shields us from charged Solar particles and Cosmic rays (high energy radiation). Most of the particles get trapped in zones called the Van Allen belts. Only 1 or 2 % reach the ground.

The EMF isn't the whole story - the gases of the atmosphere itself are quite a barrier. For comparison, Mars has an incredibly thin atmosphere (density is a tiny % of Earth's atmosphere) and no magnetic field - so charged particles from the Sun actually reach the ground on Mars. If you remember the Beagle 2 mission to Mars that failed, the reason it crashed was that the stream of particles emanating from the Sun (the Solar Wind) blasted into the Martian atmosphere (no protective magnetic field) and thinned it so much that Beagle2's parachutes didn't work well enough!

Now think about a Summer day on Earth, when you're lying in the park during your lunch hour. Some clouds are obscuring the Sun. As the clouds drift away, and the Sun emerges, you can FEEL the heat from the Sun on your skin, especially your face. You can FEEL the Sun's heat from 100 million miles away. If you keep your eyes shut, you can tell when the clouds have gone just by feeling the warmth from the Sun. It takes 8 minutes for LIGHT to reach Earth from the Sun, and light is the fastest thing in the Universe. That's how far away the Sun is - but you can still feel the temperature difference between direct sunlight and cloud shading.

I mean it - this really is a simple experiment you can do yourself, even in winter.

But the heat from the Sun is only part of the energy it radiates. Ultra-violet radiation gives us tans and skin cancer. Charged particles damage our DNA, causing mutations and degradation of cell function (ageing).

And the Earth's Magnetic field is to charged particles what clouds are to sunlight. That is, without the EMF, we could be extremely vulnerable to damage from Solar particles. Nobody knows for sure, because we only know what things are like WITH an EMF: we've no idea what would happen to the Earth if there was no EMF. And we don't know what happens to the EMF while it is changing polarity; does it flip instantaneously and leave everything the same as before but upside-down, or does it gradually dwindle away to nothing before slowly building up again the other way round (which is what happens on the Sun, though more complicated)?

During the Manhattan project to develop the first nuclear bomb, and especially leading up to the first bomb test (Trinity) in New Mexico, the scientists were seriously concerned about setting fire to the Earth's atmosphere and cooking everyone. Following that example, theories about whatever is happening on the island in LOST, they don't necessarily have to make sense - they just have to account for whatever DHARMA/HANSO/The Others were frightened of!

Finally (for now ), the idea that the Swan hatch contains a protective electromagnetic device is still open to interpretation. It could be a small-scale affair meant only to protect the island (and nuts to the rest of the world), or it could be a large scale affair meant to protect the whole Earth (possibly so intense that it fries the island).

Do you know something? I'm scaring myself.

Loving these posts.

I hope sawyersbullet hasn't overloaded on having to absorb too much science on this thread.

It was totally sound to point out that we are predominantly (with the exception of sawywersbullet) looking for a factual explanation for the aspirations of a fictional company in a fictional show. The science of The Dharma Initiative doesn't have to be real; at best it is out of date anyway, based on assumptions made in the 1970's.

Can't wait to see the rest of S2. I'm sure many questions will be answered and many more posed.

quote:

What's the connection between The Swan & The Valenzetti Equation?

Need to know more about what's in the Valenzetti equation before trying to work something out.

Could be something to do with civilisation destroying itself through NUCLEAR WAR!! This was a serious fear in the 1970s; so once again nothing needs to make sense to us, it just has to account for what DHARMA/HANSO were thinking 30 years ago.

Nuclear explosions can produce Electromagnetic Pulses that fry electronic components. It's a bit like being struck by lighting. The Swan station could contain equipment to protect the island from EMPs.

Alternatively, it could be one heck of an EMP bomb!
Who knows? Maybe the islanders got a bit over-excited after watching Star Wars, and decided to build their own Death Star type weapon. They're going to blow up the Moon.

Might even be a defence against asteroid impacts. Maybe that's what the Valenzetti equation is all about.

Could happen!

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Apollo Rising:
Loving these posts.

I hope sawyersbullet hasn't overloaded on having to absorb too much science on this thread.

You can tell this is all new to me can't you? I am digesting it all and will swoop in with the killer comment in a few days (hopefully...).

Hi Sawyersbullet

I'm hoping you've got some clues or theories perhaps from other litrary works. I got as far as dicussing the similarities to The Prisoner with another poster. My main hope being that Lost doesn't have a similar ending.

I'm going to work on that asteroid idea.
Would be just as good a one-shot defence mechanism as the one against magnetic field reversals.

http://geomag.gfdi.fsu.edu/Orsted/

Click on 'research' then 'Observatory map', they have one in Bangui, Central African republic. Very close to
Latitude 4 8 15
Longitude 16 23 42.