I know Ronnie needed the money yesterday so he dealt early, heavily influenced by the legacy of disasterous games earlier in the week but players in his position really should read my previous post about "odds". Ever since I studied probability in maths at school I have been fascinated by the chances of things happening as against not happening. That is what makes Deal unmissable for me. I have used this knowledge to my advantage (my horses came 1st and 2nd in the Grand National last week !) so at the risk of boring regular readers, I repeat :
NEVER EVER DEAL AT 11 BOX WITH 3 BIG REDS LEFT ON THE BOARD. The chances that you will take all 3 in the next round are 1 in 165. VERY UNLIKELY INDEED. Sure enough, Ronnie was left with all three.
Even at 8 box the chances of taking all 3 in the next round are 1 in 56 so it's still worth playing on.
AT 5 box the chances reduce to 1 in 10. I admit I would have gone on at that point but against the odds Ronnie did actually take all 3 big reds in the final round. Just a shame it was 3 rounds too late.
If you are lucky enough to get through your audition I wish you the best of luck and hope you will bear the above stats in mind when it comes to the crunch part of your game.
WE ARE ALL WISE AFTER THE EVENT BUT SHOW ME SOMEONE WHO IS WISE BEFORE THE EVENT !!!
All players must remember that there is a 50/50 chance they will have a blue in their box, so on that basis any "Red" offer is a good one.
Each box contains an average of £25,000, BUT if you are relying on offers [rather than going to the end] then remeber the banker usually offers less than half the average. So this would be just £10,000.
Finally,if you have one blue and 7 reds left, there is still a 50/50 chance there is a blue in your box. This is because those were the odds at the start of the game, and provided you have the same box, you have the same odds.
But I agree, thinking about all this is what makes the game great.
Hi there, poor guy , felt sorry for him....seeing the excitement drain from his face was so painful to watch. Just when you think you know which way the games gonna go, the element of suprise jumps in to play. Just the best show on TV
It must be difficult to think of all the odds when it is your game. Just being the centre of attention under the studio lights must be daunting to say the least. And it was awful to see Ronnie's face after he dealt and the game progressed. But Chobo is right about going on to the end - unless all the blues are eliminated the 50/50 chance remains throughout the game of having either a blue or red in your box.
Originally posted by Dorsetlad: I know Ronnie needed the money yesterday so he dealt early, heavily influenced by the legacy of disasterous games earlier in the week but players in his position really should read my previous post about "odds". Ever since I studied probability in maths at school I have been fascinated by the chances of things happening as against not happening. That is what makes Deal unmissable for me. I have used this knowledge to my advantage (my horses came 1st and 2nd in the Grand National last week !) so at the risk of boring regular readers, I repeat :
NEVER EVER DEAL AT 11 BOX WITH 3 BIG REDS LEFT ON THE BOARD. The chances that you will take all 3 in the next round are 1 in 165. VERY UNLIKELY INDEED. Sure enough, Ronnie was left with all three.
Even at 8 box the chances of taking all 3 in the next round are 1 in 56 so it's still worth playing on.
AT 5 box the chances reduce to 1 in 10. I admit I would have gone on at that point but against the odds Ronnie did actually take all 3 big reds in the final round. Just a shame it was 3 rounds too late.
If you are lucky enough to get through your audition I wish you the best of luck and hope you will bear the above stats in mind when it comes to the crunch part of your game.
Well, you cant say that you have to no deal with the three biggest in play becuase when Steve played, (late 2007/early2008) he took out the biggest 3 at the 11 box stage. There is still a possibility of it going. Also, many times a round from hell has occured at the 11 box stage; Derek, Shobian, Maria, Gavin and many others. You cannot make such a statement!
It must be really nerve racking making a decision with hundreds of eyes focused on you. If the amount of money offered will make a difference to your life take it and have no regrets.
Originally posted by chobo: I see thing differently!
Finally,if you have one blue and 7 reds left, there is still a 50/50 chance there is a blue in your box. This is because those were the odds at the start of the game, and provided you have the same box, you have the same odds.
But I agree, thinking about all this is what makes the game great.
I am afraid that argument is seductive but quite wrong ( you are thinking of the "Monty Hall" problem ) : the odds on whether you have a blue or a red in your box change throughout the gane.
However since the banker got nastier and more erratic players with a " good " board at 8 or 5 tend to take the money ( £10 k -£15k ) while players with a poor board play on but with no life left in the game . So the policy of the evil banker is making the desired dramatic/traumatic last 15 minutes is becoming rarer and rarer.
Originally posted by Dorsetlad: I know Ronnie needed the money yesterday so he dealt early, heavily influenced by the legacy of disasterous games earlier in the week but players in his position really should read my previous post about "odds". Ever since I studied probability in maths at school I have been fascinated by the chances of things happening as against not happening. That is what makes Deal unmissable for me. I have used this knowledge to my advantage (my horses came 1st and 2nd in the Grand National last week !) so at the risk of boring regular readers, I repeat :
NEVER EVER DEAL AT 11 BOX WITH 3 BIG REDS LEFT ON THE BOARD. The chances that you will take all 3 in the next round are 1 in 165. VERY UNLIKELY INDEED. Sure enough, Ronnie was left with all three.
Even at 8 box the chances of taking all 3 in the next round are 1 in 56 so it's still worth playing on.
AT 5 box the chances reduce to 1 in 10. I admit I would have gone on at that point but against the odds Ronnie did actually take all 3 big reds in the final round. Just a shame it was 3 rounds too late.
If you are lucky enough to get through your audition I wish you the best of luck and hope you will bear the above stats in mind when it comes to the crunch part of your game.
Working class players with responsibilities usually cant afford to lose - no mater how atractive the bet - Why should they when they would hestitate to bet £10 on a horse at 6 to 4 against let alone £12,000. Yes 1 in 56 for ALL 3 at box 8 but - you have a 37.5% chance of taking out the big one - enough to reduce your offer substantially!!!!
Originally posted by PeggyG: It mustBut Chobo is right about going on to the end - unless all the blues are eliminated the 50/50 chance remains throughout the game of having either a blue or red in your box.
Not so PegyG - When the show started I took that view to - but after much argument on a Maths newsgroup it was shown to be fallacious - Over a large number of games 50% chance of a blue or red in the box - but in a particular game the chance varies as the game progresses and more and more information becomes avaialable about the probabilities.
I'm familiar with the Monty Hall thing. Please explain how the odds can change when the box has not changed. Ye canna change the laws of physics [or maths].
I find all this really facinating and interesting and could talk about it for hours but I'm sure if I was in the crazy chair all rational thinking would go out of my head completely
I have an application in to be on deal, but apart from having several requests for photos,I probably won't ever hear any more,but like Pash Paws says,I think nerves would get the better of me & all the things that I've thought about doing would go completely out of my head.Naturally I would try to be as normal as possible,but I don't think it will be easy
Originally posted by chobo: I'm familiar with the Monty Hall thing. Please explain how the odds can change when the box has not changed. Ye canna change the laws of physics [or maths].
Hi Chobo
Well worth a "Google" - Monty Hall Paradox / Problem :Its mind boggling
.When we have 22 unopened boxes - the box on the table is either blue or red - 50/50 OK - After each offer we have a posible new game situation from the initial one ( only equal red and blue boxes at ANY time is the SAME situation as the initial one )
When the red/blue proportion changes so accordingly do the odds on a red or blue box being on the table. To suggest than when we have ONLY red or blue boxes unopened ( as not infrequently happens) the odds are still 50/50 - is a reductio ad absurdum.
I once thought as you do because of Monty Hall - but DOND is not the same .
Another paradox for you - If everyone refused all offers - the total cost to the banker ( over say 700 games ) would be more than he had actually paid out : unfortunately unlike the banker the player cant take a long view over 700 games .
But haven't two different issues been confused here? The original post was talking about the odds of taking out blues or reds at different points in the game which is different to the odds of having a blue or a red on the table.
Hi Gamesman, insulting me in Latin eh? Now that is posh!
I think I get your point and will Google Monty Hall. If there were 7 reds and one blue are you saying the odds of the player having the blue is 1/8? That would be a very slim chance I think you agree. BUT in that same senario, if you were offered a swap, you would grab it with both hands surely? Now why would you want to do that if there is only a 1/8 chance of you having a blue on the table? Your final point is no suprise because all the offers are below the average [and most players accept offers].
And your right Posh there are two issues being mixed up together here, but unravelling them is difficult!
Originally posted by chobo: Hi Gamesman, insulting me in Latin eh? Now that is posh!
I think I get your point and will Google Monty Hall.
If there were 7 reds and one blue are you saying the odds of the player having the blue is 1/8? That would be a very slim chance I think you agree.
A - Certainly
BUT in that same senario, if you were offered a swap, you would grab it with both hands surely?
B> Makes no odds . Because from 8 boxes there are 28 posible final pairs - of which only 7 pairs contain a blue the other 21 pairs are both red. If you were unlucky enough to get a blue / red pair you will be faced with the same roblem as if you had'nt swapped. swapping does not change anything . Thats the original point at each stage ( 17,14,1,8,5,or 2 ) you are faced with a "new" game - the past is of no consequence.
Your final point is no suprise because all the offers are below the average [and most players accept offers]. Good gamblers quit while they are ahead - I remember one sensible lady saying I may be a gambler but I am not stupid.
And your right Posh there are two issues being mixed up together here, but unravelling them is difficult!
Originally posted by Posh Paws: But haven't two different issues been confused here? The original post was talking about the odds of taking out blues or reds at different points in the game which is different to the odds of having a blue or a red on the table.
No confusion - two different questions with two different answers. The original question gave the high odds against taking out all three reds out of eight : he forgot its not necesary to take out all three for a big drop in offers - its 37.5 $ against taking out a big one among the three.
The 50/50 chance of a red or a blue on the table the occurs ONLY at a time there are an equal number of red and blue boxes unopened NOT as suggested elsewhere :
Originally posted by Posh Paws: But haven't two different issues been confused here? The original post was talking about the odds of taking out blues or reds at different points in the game which is different to the odds of having a blue or a red on the table.
No confusion - two different questions with two different answers. The original question gave the high odds against taking out all three reds out of eight : he forgot its not necesary to take out all three for a big drop in offers - its 37.5 $ against taking out a big one among the three.
The 50/50 chance of a red or a blue on the table the occurs ONLY at a time there are an equal number of red and blue boxes unopened NOT as suggested elsewhere :
I disagree. As long as there are two different colours left in the game, each individual box has a 50% chance of being red and 50% chance of being blue. If there was a third coulour added they would each have a 33% chance.
B> Makes no odds . Because from 8 boxes there are 28 posible final pairs - of which only 7 pairs contain a blue
Gamesman you have muddied the waters for me by talking about pairs. For the sake of simplicity can we assume you are going to go to the end and take what is in your box. In the same 8 box senario of 7 reds left and one blue would you really not swap if offered one?
And quitting while ahead: As you are never offered the average how do you do this? Do you mean dealing at the first offer?
The 50/50 chance of a red or a blue on the table the occurs ONLY at a time there are an equal number of red and blue boxes unopened NOT as suggested elsewhere :
I disagree. As long as there are two different colours left in the game, each individual box has a 50% chance of being red and 50% chance of being blue. If there was a third coulour added they would each have a 33% chance.[/QUOTE]
Can I get this clear : Are you saying that if at box 11 stage there are 10 blues and only the £250 K remaining unopened , the player has a 50% chance of having £250 K in his box ??? and not a 1/11 th chance : If you have 10 blue balls and one red ball in a bag - ALL the balls have an equal chance of being chosen every time you dip.1/11 then 1/8 then 1/5 then 1/2 QED ?
PeggyG x
