I've been negative for months in fact I have even been looking for a different career believing that the end of the property market is nigh. BUT I'm busy again. It appears that the press predicting 30% drops have got it wrong. Sellers don't reduce by that much so maybe the stand off is over and we will see buyers, scared by one reason, Newspaper headlines, Return in numbers! Whoohoo!
"The greatest trick the Devil played, was convincing us all that he did not exist"
Where I live (SE London) asking prices have not dropped at all. But whereas houses actually used to sell, now people just put "For Sale" boards outside, and wait ...... and wait ...... and wait ..... etc etc etc
To summerise - the prices stated in the land registry figures are not the true selling price for new homes in a lot of cases. So prices for new builds are distorted.
So people who are going to make offers on such houses, which come onto the market would be wise to come in well under the asking price - or the price stated on the land resitry figures.
Panorama last night was in my opinion distorted and biased reporting with a certain someone who use to frequent this forum spouting his usual "we're all doomed" message - guess if he keeps saying it long enough it will come true.
Yes some of the figures included in the LR database are distorted, this has been known for some time and efforts are being made to stamp it out.
What i thought was more intersting were the "investors" buying overpriced properties with no research or knowledge of what they were buying and then bemoaning the fact that it had all gone pear shaped. What's that about fools and their money being parted .........
My Son has just sold(stc)his property and bought and completed on another. He actually sold his house to a private buyer (sorry Immy ) The great debate on house prices will always rest on key factors such as location and pricing of the property you are selling and you are buying. The flat 'swindle' has been known about for at least 2 years and has been public knowledge but still investors piled in because some if not all were committed as they had bought off plan and had paid large deposits to secure. Funny how these property shows in hotels disappear into the Wiltshire mist when the downturn starts Mel.
Really? Was one of the HPC nutters on the telly?* I might have to watch - what was his name?
I've noticed that on HouseSnake, a lot of the brand new top price flats that were built near us at ludicrous prices for London commuters have had 20% slashed off their prices, leaving them still at ludicrous prices. Meanwhile, people are quite happily going about buying and selling houses that were more reasonably priced all along.
* Nutters because they used to come and spam this forum when we were all happily talking about other things.
Unfortunately, I think you have got it wrong. Ever heard of "Dead Cat Bounce"? SOME individuals may be scouting for bargains, but I am looking for drops of 30% before I go anywhere near property. And im not the only one.
"A dead cat bounce is a term used by traders in the finance industry to describe a pattern wherein a moderate rise in the price of a stock follows a spectacular fall, with the connotation that the rise does not indicate improving circumstances. It is derived from the notion that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height".
The reasons for such a bounce can be technical - investors may have standing orders to buy shorted stocks if they fall below a certain level, to cover certain option positions, or for speculation. Since bounces often occur, investors buy into what they hope is the bottom of the market, expecting a bounce and thus make a quick profit. The very act of anticipating a bounce can create and magnify it.
A market rise after a sharp fall can only really be seen to be a "dead cat bounce" with the benefit of hindsight. If the stocks starts to fall again in the following days and weeks, then it is a true dead cat bounce. If the market picks up starts to climb again, it was not a bounce but a bottom".
Pflusk, in very recent memory (2005) we saw a marked slowdown in the market. My business was down by some 30% on the previous year. Values dropped by around 5%. Vendors reduced their prices, then reduced again but when we asked them to reduce a third time, they simply gave up and withdrew. This caused a shortage of stock, coupled with pent up demand from an impatient buying public who were noticing slowly to begin with, then much more rapidly that sensationalist media reporting was clearly way off the mark! We saw what I would call re animation of your'dead cat' after which the dead cat took speed and went crazy!
Just remember this 5.25% base rate is cheap! We have high employment levels Although we have the lowest level of first time buyers in 20 years we have plenty of equity in second and third time buyers properties. This allows them to move up. I don't expect good times for at least a year but things they are improving!
"The greatest trick the Devil played, was convincing us all that he did not exist"
oh and can we stop discussing dead cats - it's bringing back memories of me childhood, feeding horses and finding a rather dry flat cat in the middle of the hay bale. That had to hurt
5.25 interest rates,5 in May,4.75 a little later,high employment,its all looking good.Also,following stock market crashes people look to property to put their money into .More buyers = higher prices.
I am sorry, but if you think we are in the 2005 scenario, you are very delluded.
Credit crunch therefore no money to lend (doesnt matter what rate tha BOE set, its the SVR that matters, besides, if there is no money to lend then you are stuffed). = LOWER HOUSE PRICES
Recession = LOWER HOUSE PRICES
Job losses = LOWER HOUSE PRICES
massive rise (continuing) in repos = LOWER HOUSE PRICES
houses not selling at auction = LOWER HOUSE PRICES
dont bet on lower rates, MErv commented on this on thursday after the BOE rate cut (hence stock prices falling) = LOWER HOUSE PRICES
LOTS of publicity in broadsheets/daily comics about house prices falling 30% = LOWER HOUSE PRICES
You can come here and beg online to convince people that prices are going back up, ALL the stats, from lending figures to market activity in the past month are pointing towards LOWER HOUSE PRICES
and lets face it, as an EA, if you dont start talking your customers into lowering prices, your volumes will fall, and you will go bust. Better get talking to your vendors!
Oh, if you think that a market that is so overinflated that those at the bottom cant even get on is a good thing, I can reassure you its not. Its a very bad thing that is going to end in tears for many who were fooled into believing that house prices only ever go up.
Within 24 months, with the way credit markets are going, you will lucky to be able to get a credit card with a £500 limit, never mind a mortgage at 6X earnings. It dont matter WHAT YOU THINK your house is worth, once people start to get forced out (sad I know) of their homes as a result of overextending, the MARKET price will fall, not due to oversupply, but the fact there is no money left to borrow.
This is exactly what is happening in the credit markets right now. wonder why egg just shelved 120 thousand customers? Want to know why mortgage approval rates have fallen through the floor? Its called credit crunch and it means the banks dont want to lend to you any more because even they have realised we have all overextended!
THe house market, in time (perhaps 20 years from now) will reach the same overinflated state it is in now. I am not saying it wont. But today's bubble is over, deal with that. ITs about to pop big time.
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