quote:

Originally posted by malkie:

quote:

However, if you had put your 100K into Debt Management shares in 2003 your 100K would now be worth about 600K.

Aren't most debt management companies unwritten by banks meaning your investment wouldn't give you that return as you'd simply be buying shares in banks ?

Debt management companies make most of their money brokering IVAs. It's the banks who end up losing.

quote:

Originally posted by paulio:
[My target for growth is 50% a year, which I have beaten every year since 2001 when I started. Have you seen the price of gold, or UK, US, eurozone or Japanese equities as of late? I will be in a position to retire within a decade if I choose. If I bought a house at todays prices would I be able to?

Ditto, they have done extremely well. I have invested in the funds and they've been averaging around 3-7% per month, but I have had to swap once to beat underperformers. Not bad at all!

Perhaps I am in an minority but I don't have the time and cannot be ar5ed messing about with the stock market. I just want somewhere nice to live and am SICK of renting.

quote:

Originally posted by reverand:
Rent? Then sell up when profit is made and buy somewhere nice, live off the rest!

As for investments, my shares are up 6% since yesterday! Nice! There are otherways to make money than housing. I think hoses should be for living ONLY

Yes and they could go down by 20% tomorrow.

quote:

Originally posted by bclark1:

quote:

Originally posted by reverand:
Rent? Then sell up when profit is made and buy somewhere nice, live off the rest!

As for investments, my shares are up 6% since yesterday! Nice! There are otherways to make money than housing. I think hoses should be for living ONLY

Yes and they could go down by 20% tomorrow.

True, but the stock market and metals are in a bull market. Much like housing has
been. If you analyze the companies you can profit nearly everytime. Diversify and you
limit the ability to lose (assuming research).

House prices go up and down too - just takes longer. With the stock market
you can access your gains immediately.

quote:

Originally posted by bclark1:

quote:

Originally posted by reverand:
Rent? Then sell up when profit is made and buy somewhere nice, live off the rest!

As for investments, my shares are up 6% since yesterday! Nice! There are otherways to make money than housing. I think hoses should be for living ONLY

Yes and they could go down by 20% tomorrow.

True, but unlikely as an investment portfolio will be across a number of asset classes and therefore less exposed to the movements of one particular market.

quote:

Originally posted by decca:
Perhaps I am in an minority but I don't have the time and cannot be ar5ed messing about with the stock market. I just want somewhere nice to live and am SICK of renting.

Then go for it. Lifes for living and if you're not happy to rent then buy. Its for you to decide whats important.

quote:

Originally posted by reverand:

quote:

Originally posted by bclark1:

quote:

Originally posted by reverand:
Rent? Then sell up when profit is made and buy somewhere nice, live off the rest!

As for investments, my shares are up 6% since yesterday! Nice! There are otherways to make money than housing. I think hoses should be for living ONLY

Yes and they could go down by 20% tomorrow.

True, but the stock market and metals are in a bull market. Much like housing has
been. If you analyze the companies you can profit nearly everytime. Diversify and you
limit the ability to lose (assuming research).

House prices go up and down too - just takes longer. With the stock market
you can access your gains immediately.

Ah, but which stock market and which metals? The FT looks toppy to me, as is gold - copper though?

quote:

Originally posted by paulio:
Ah, but which stock market and which metals? The FT looks toppy to me, as is gold - copper though?

Thats the trick isn't it! I think with the FED now not printing M3, a lot of the US are buying into metals to protect their wealth. US inflation is rampant. As for the FT, who knows!

quote:

Hindsight is a good thing. However, if you had put your 100K into Debt Management shares in 2003 your 100K would now be worth about 600K.

What a pathetic response. Honestly, do you think I was going to put all my money into stocks and shares? Do you know how risky your proposition is?

I am glad you have made 6% in a week, but to be honest, I don't quite believe you. Something is wrong with your story, one minute you have all your money in the Bank, the next you are Gordon Gekko! The truth is probably quite different.

If you make so much money from shares, surely it must gall you to pay rent into someone else's pocket!

All in all, I think you are talking a bit of bully!

I'm not gonna claim what I think prices will do, to me it's obvious.

But I will add an anecdote of two friends.

Basically, they have been casually looking for a house (to buy together) and they are currently renting toegther. In the last month or so, they have thrown any rational thinking out of the window and are now panic buying and have an offer accepted on a not very nice place.

To me this smacks of the peak of a bubble, where people are so affraid of missing out they will do anything to be in the game...

Oh, and interest rates. If rates got to 5%, 80% of property yields would be less than mortgage rates!

Taking extreme examples of share increase isn't typical. For most of the period of steep property rises stocks were performing badly. Plus you have to deduct rental charges and factor in any intervening upward movement in house values.

If we're swapping anecdotes here's one. In '99 I paid 45k for a house and spent 18k renovating it. It's worth between £250-£275 now. I'm spending £40k extending it to a 5 bedder to bring it to the £400k+ mark. I'd be delighted to be shown any no-brainer shares that deliver a similar return while accomodating me and the family.

quote:

Originally posted by cakehead:
Taking extreme examples of share increase isn't typical. For most of the period of steep property rises stocks were performing badly. Plus you have to deduct rental charges and factor in any intervening upward movement in house values.

If we're swapping anecdotes here's one. In '99 I paid 45k for a house and spent 18k renovating it. It's worth between £250-£275 now. I'm spending £40k extending it to a 5 bedder to bring it to the £400k+ mark. I'd be delighted to be shown any no-brainer shares that deliver a similar return while accomodating me and the family.

There is no comparison. That is a remarkable return.

But I can guarantee that you wont get near that amount 7 years from now! You have caught the housing market at the right time. When the housing market was rising at a silly pace, the LSE was not doing so great so its not a fair comparison. If house drop 20% over the next 7 years and Stocks and Shares go up for the next 7 years then you could argue that shares were better.

You caught the market at the right time. Good Luck to you. My input into this thread is that asking prices are silly again but I strongly believe this is NOT GOING TO LAST. I am not calling a crash, I am simply stating that in my opinion, houses will depreaciate because the demand will die off when IR's rise.

A couple of hikes in IR's, which seem likely now, will change sentiment overnight. Once it's common knowledge that people have to sell for less than they bought it will gather momentum. As we stand today, there are VERY FEW anecdotes where people have lost money on property, so to the masses its a WIN-WIN situation. When people see yeilds fall from about 4% to 1% or maybe even a loss then BTL will dropped by the amateurs. They will panic sell and because IR's are higher, people will not buy unless the price drops.

All's I know is it CAN change overnight! Look at NuLabour - 3 weeks ago they were cruising along smoothly. Now they are a wreck ALL IN 3 WEEKS!!!

Dont underestimate sentiment in ANY MARKET. SE or Housing.

Back to the housing market...

An assistant of mine who is trying to purchase has had two full-asking-price offers rejected in 4 days.

Something's going on.

quote:

Originally posted by stateofplay:

What a pathetic response. Honestly, do you think I was going to put all my money into stocks and shares? Do you know how risky your proposition is?

My response was to point out what could've been made. Of course I wouldn't expect any sane person to put all there money into stocks and shares, especially someone who doesn't do it as a professsion. My point was that if you catch a bull market early, you profit from it. Something home buyers have experienced in the last 9 years.

quote:

I am glad you have made 6% in a week, but to be honest, I don't quite believe you.

Believe what you like. My stock investments have performed wonderfully in the last month.

quote:

Originally posted by reverand:
Believe what you like. My stock investments have performed wonderfully in the last month.

I can believe it. I think a lot of us with shares have seen them bloat up in the last few months.

But, as someone said earlier, it's a matter of catching the market at the right time.

We can all quote returns over one week, one year, five years etc in any sort of asset that suit our argument.

quote:

Originally posted by Simulcra:
All's I know is it CAN change overnight! Look at NuLabour - 3 weeks ago they were cruising along smoothly. Now they are a wreck ALL IN 3 WEEKS!!!

Mind you, the Tories used to get caned just about every year at the local electiuons when they were in power, yet they still had this habit of getting back into power!

StateOfPlay, where are you based?

Mid Beds Ana, not what I would call a prime area, 40 miles north of London.

That is what suprises me, the demand for property has surged in the last few months. Still, I have a theory that it is due in some part to a shortage in good quality homes on the market.

Property prices will never cease to amaze me, I am glad I put myself through hardship to get a rung on the ladder, or I would definately have struggled to buy the house I am currently in.

I am one of those 'few' who failed to spot the massive growth potential in Debt management shares, so I would definately have been left behind! Mind, I wouldn't invest in shares of companies who make profits by doing long term secured loans at high rates to those in financial difficulty.

Hopefully this is just a short term boom, my thoughts are that the higher prices rise, the further they have got to fall. I would not want anyone to have to suffer the indignity of the mass repossessions that happened in the late eighties/early ninetees.

quote:

Originally posted by bclark1:
Reverand, posts like this really make me laugh!

How many times have we been told that prices have already peaked?

As for Interest rates being about to soar, what do you base that upon? The general consensus is that the next IR rate move will be downwards.

Check the Beeb website under the Economy link for "Factory Prices Threaten Inflation" on the right of the page under 'Other top stories' Might not be there when you look though.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Simulcra:

There is no comparison. That is a remarkable return.

But I can guarantee that you wont get near that amount 7 years from now!
QUOTE]

How can you guarantee that? This sort of all knowing statement gets my goat. Do you mean it will be worth more?
People have lost out over the last ten years because of these kinds of authoratative edicts. In the same time my other properties have made money e.g. 54k in '03, 130k in '06.
As others have said, nobody knows what will happen, we make assumptions based on precedent and prepare for surprises.

quote:

Originally posted by cakehead:


How can you guarantee that? This sort of all knowing statement gets my goat. Do you mean it will be worth more?

With the BoJ about to hike their rates, the cheap borrowing is about to get a bit more expensive.

quote:

Originally posted by reverand:

quote:

Originally posted by cakehead:


How can you guarantee that? This sort of all knowing statement gets my goat. Do you mean it will be worth more?

With the BoJ about to hike their rates, the cheap borrowing is about to get a bit more expensive.

All such factors have an influence on confidence and subsequent house values but by how much and which other factors are involved? Who would have forseen the influx of east european workers putting additional demand on housing?
I still maintain self-appointed experts who encouraged people not to buy over the last four years are responsible for those individuals paying high prices now.

quote:

Originally posted by cakehead:

All such factors have an influence on confidence and subsequent house values but by how much and which other factors are involved? Who would have forseen the influx of east european workers putting additional demand on housing?
I still maintain self-appointed experts who encouraged people not to buy over the last four years are responsible for those individuals paying high prices now.

I don't think anyone on this site has encouraged people not to buy, have they?. People should make their own choices based on their own circumstances. I personally blame the government for fiddling the inflation figures (effecting the rates) and the banks for irresponsible lending and poor credit checks.