It's gone mad again, the prices of property are going through the roof again.

Two houses identical to mine have sold in my street this last week. They were on the market for a couple of days. When I saw the asking price in the paper I nearly choked. I thought they were barking mad and would never sell.

Having spoken to both owners I am amazed to find out they both sold for the full asking price in under 3 days!!

They both achieved 20% more than the previous ceiling price, which was recorded on a real prices site in February of this year! (my house!)

What on earth is happening to the property market? Where was the crash the HPC forum said would happen? Where are these buyers getting their money from? Why were the HPC people telling us to rent last year? Are the HPC forum members self interested and trying to keep poor people poor?Are white sports socks coming back into fashion?

All these questions I need answering!

Good post SoP. HPC equate disgruntlement at prices with a crisis in value. They aren't the same thing at all.
As someone who rented for the first half of the nineties I now see such doom-mongering for what it is.

Recent cases and reasonably local to me.

Person puts their house up for sale due to Company move and re-location.
House is sold in 10 days at near asking price.
Neighbour enquires as to how easy it was for them to sell etc. with the result they too place their house on the market and it is sold within 3 days.
This created a Snowball effect whereby 6 nearby houses all came on the market due to the neigbours talking to one another and they are all sold with the boards up to prove it.
Certainly questions the wisdom of all the Housing Pundits forcasting a severe downturn this year which only reinforces what I said before....nobody knows what is going to happen.

Similar here (not quite so crazy!) but I completed on my new house in mid-March. It had been on the market 6 months when I offered - nothing wrong with it, excellent neutral decor, gorgeous kitchen and bathroom. Good house, good position. A house a few doors down, identical went on the market for £17k more than I paid - sold in 4 weeks.

The double top has occured. Time to get out of housing. As for mortgages, anyone seen how rates are increasing. IR's are about to soar.

The last of the mugs who believe 'they will miss the boat if they dont buy now' are panicking.

When Warren Buffett predicts housing has topped, you know the game is up.

Reverand, posts like this really make me laugh!

How many times have we been told that prices have already peaked?

As for Interest rates being about to soar, what do you base that upon? The general consensus is that the next IR rate move will be downwards.

I don't see how the facts can be interpreted as "the last of the mugs" panicking. People weren't panic buying this time last year - things were slumping.

I remember quite clearly I'd just lost the first buyer on my flat and I was desperate to find a new buyer to stop my chain collapsing. People weren't even viewing then, everyone was saying 'wait until after the election, then they'll come out' - but they didn't. It wasn't until the autumn that people started looking again, and even then it was slow.

What's happening now is an upswing - not the tail-end people panic-buying. I'm no expert - I can't tell you what that means for the future. If you want to interpret this increased activity as a sign of a crash, then fine, explain why this is the sign of a crash. Is there history of a slump followed by a brief boom being how a crash starts?

Personally I have no invested feelings either way - my house is my home - no intention of moving for a good long while - the value can go either way without making a jot of difference to my life. I'd just like to see an argument backed up with facts, rather than just wild statements.

quote:

Originally posted by bclark1:
Reverand, posts like this really make me laugh!

How many times have we been told that prices have already peaked?

4 years and counting.

quote:

Originally posted by bclark1:
Reverand, posts like this really make me laugh!

How many times have we been told that prices have already peaked?

As for Interest rates being about to soar, what do you base that upon? The general consensus is that the next IR rate move will be downwards.

1) He did not say peaked - he said a 'double-top'. This is phrase used in markets, look it up

2) Have you had your head in the sand for the last 8 weeks? All indication show that IR's are UP with a 0.25 raise as early as AUGUST (or sooner). The markets are pricing in IR's of 5% by DECEMBER 2006 and up to 5.5% by JUNE 2007.

Yet again to re-iterate what MELBOY said, no-one knows whats going to happen but there are absolutely NO ARTICLES saying that IR's are going down. You may be listening to your EA too much me thinks

Anyway, on to post itself.
SoP I agree, Its utter madness that people are paying these prices but it does not indicate NATIONAL trends. We all know that London and the SE are a bit crazy at the moment.

The other possible reason is the fact that IR's are rising these people might be getting a 10 year fixed at 4.6% or something. Some people may see as the best thing to do?

I know I would not pay todays silly prices but its all a risk. Anyone that bought TODAY might think their clever but IF (I said IF!) they drop 10% then they are the ones who were not clever.

It does not matter what you pay for a house as long as you can afford it now and if IR rise to about 7%. The irony of all of this is the ones that have sold at 20% more than the ceiling have made a bit more cash, but the house they are buying will be more expensive and that rund og the lader has just cost them more!!!

A lot of people do not see this. HPI at these levels helps everyone APART from the Buyers and Sellers.

To show what is PROBABLY going to happen to interest rates.

ATTRACTIVE fixed-rate mortgages are on the way out. Most major lenders, including Abbey, Halifax, Northern Rock and Portman, have increased their fixed rates by up to 0.1 percentage points in the last few weeks. 'The market thinks interest rates are heading up and lenders have repriced their fixed rates accordingly.

From thisismoney - can't post a link or it will get deleted. Title is 'Party over for fised rate fans'

quote:

Originally posted by Simulcra:

quote:

Originally posted by bclark1:
Reverand, posts like this really make me laugh!

How many times have we been told that prices have already peaked?

As for Interest rates being about to soar, what do you base that upon? The general consensus is that the next IR rate move will be downwards.

1) He did not say peaked - he said a 'double-top'. This is phrase used in markets, look it up

2) Have you had your head in the sand for the last 8 weeks? All indication show that IR's are UP with a 0.25 raise as early as AUGUST (or sooner). The markets are pricing in IR's of 5% by DECEMBER 2006 and up to 5.5% by JUNE 2007.

Yet again to re-iterate what MELBOY said, no-one knows whats going to happen but there are absolutely NO ARTICLES saying that IR's are going down. You may be listening to your EA too much me thinks

Anyway, on to post itself.
SoP I agree, Its utter madness that people are paying these prices but it does not indicate NATIONAL trends. We all know that London and the SE are a bit crazy at the moment.

The other possible reason is the fact that IR's are rising these people might be getting a 10 year fixed at 4.6% or something. Some people may see as the best thing to do?

I know I would not pay todays silly prices but its all a risk. Anyone that bought TODAY might think their clever but IF (I said IF!) they drop 10% then they are the ones who were not clever.

It does not matter what you pay for a house as long as you can afford it now and if IR rise to about 7%. The irony of all of this is the ones that have sold at 20% more than the ceiling have made a bit more cash, but the house they are buying will be more expensive and that rund og the lader has just cost them more!!!

A lot of people do not see this. HPI at these levels helps everyone APART from the Buyers and Sellers.

Ok, oh wise one, for those of us that are not experts please explain the meaning of Double topped and explain how it differs from peaked?

I think Sim has answered the questions to my last post.

Markets are unpredictable to call. I can't predict when or if prices will fall, but they can't keep rising forever more (discounting inflationary rises).

quote:

Originally posted by bclark1:
The general consensus is that the next IR rate move will be downwards.

That's only true nowadays if you ask a housing market VI.

quote:

Originally posted by bclark1:
Ok, oh wise one, for those of us that are not experts please explain the meaning of Double topped and explain how it differs from peaked?

DoubleTop

quote:

Originally posted by stateofplay:
It's gone mad again, the prices of property are going through the roof again.

Two houses identical to mine have sold in my street this last week. They were on the market for a couple of days. When I saw the asking price in the paper I nearly choked. I thought they were barking mad and would never sell.

Having spoken to both owners I am amazed to find out they both sold for the full asking price in under 3 days!!

They both achieved 20% more than the previous ceiling price, which was recorded on a real prices site in February of this year! (my house!)

What on earth is happening to the property market? Where was the crash the HPC forum said would happen? Where are these buyers getting their money from? Why were the HPC people telling us to rent last year? Are the HPC forum members self interested and trying to keep poor people poor?Are white sports socks coming back into fashion?

All these questions I need answering!

Round here they seem to be selling very quickly (days / couple of weeks) for on or near asking price OR sticking for months/years. Those sticking have nothing obvious wrong with them but are just not selling - i.e. good size, price realistic for area/previous sales, neutral/non-offensive decor, good area, good facilities.

Were white sports socks EVER in fashion?

Would the experts who recommended buyers were getting into an overheated market four years ago finally apologise?

quote:

He did not say peaked - he said a 'double-top'. This is phrase used in markets, look it up

It's a phrase used in darts. And a lager drink with a chaser in- also known as a depth charge. OR a bit of Manc slang used by the Happy Mondays. Oh wise one

"Double top" is used in markets, that's great, people do not need to buy shares, they choose to. However, people do need a home, so it's buy or rent, both have possible consequences.

Fixed rates are going up, that's because the money market rates have increased. This might have a slight effect on housing prices, but fixed rates are not popular anymore anyway! Most people opt for a tracker mortgage these days. I would have thought 'market experts' would know that!

My point is, for years now I have listened to people telling me not to buy, saying the best thing to do is put your money in the Bank, rent and wait. Flaming good job I didn't take their advice! I would be cursing, getting my 5%, less the tax at 20%, while all around me in the last 4 years houses have gone up by 60%!

If in 2001, I had put my £100k in a Bank, earned my 5%, paid my tax, my money would now be worth £117k. I would have paid £33000 in rent.

However, I bought a house in 2001, cost me £100k. Paid stamp duty, and Solicitors fees, so lets call that £2000. House is now worth £175k.

So, if I had waited as some were saying, my £100k would now give me £117k, yet to buy the house, I would need 175K. Would the HPC site give me the difference? LOL

So, I wonder whether the HPC website is actually a ruse? Is it people who want to buy lots of property scaring off the competition? Can they be sued for misleading advice? Are these 'experts' going to actually make an accurate prediction? Or, are they all a bunch of over opinioniated windbags that think they know better than the common joe public?

As a member of Joe Public, I have NO PREDICTION to make on future prices!

The only advice I would give is buy if you can afford it in the longer term, factor in rate rises when working out your income and expenditure, and if prices fall DON'T SELL!

The value of homes can fall as well as rise.

quote:

Originally posted by cakehead:
Would the experts who recommended buyers were getting into an overheated market four years ago finally apologise?

I don't think they come in this forum, you know.

quote:

Originally posted by stateofplay:


My point is, for years now I have listened to people telling me not to buy, saying the best thing to do is put your money in the Bank, rent and wait. Flaming good job I didn't take their advice! I would be cursing, getting my 5%, less the tax at 20%, while all around me in the last 4 years houses have gone up by 60%!

If in 2001, I had put my £100k in a Bank, earned my 5%, paid my tax, my money would now be worth £117k. I would have paid £33000 in rent.

However, I bought a house in 2001, cost me £100k. Paid stamp duty, and Solicitors fees, so lets call that £2000. House is now worth £175k.

So, if I had waited as some were saying, my £100k would now give me £117k, yet to buy the house, I would need 175K. Would the HPC site give me the difference? LOL

Hindsight is a good thing. However, if you had put your 100K into Debt Management shares in 2003 your 100K would now be worth about 600K.
Who was to know the goverments would fiddle inflation figures so as to keep rates low?
The housing market is still looking shakey and has done for sometime. No denying that. 1 in 4 new mortgages are Interest Only - that in itself is dangerous at this stage of the housing market/low interest period!

quote:

However, if you had put your 100K into Debt Management shares in 2003 your 100K would now be worth about 600K.

Yes, but would you have anywhere to live? Or do you build a litle shelter out of share certificates?

Rent? Then sell up when profit is made and buy somewhere nice, live off the rest!

As for investments, my shares are up 6% since yesterday! Nice! There are otherways to make money than housing. I think hoses should be for living ONLY

quote:

So, I wonder whether the HPC website is actually a ruse? Is it people who want to buy lots of property scaring off the competition? Can they be sued for misleading advice? Are these 'experts' going to actually make an accurate prediction? Or, are they all a bunch of over opinioniated windbags that think they know better than the common joe public?

As a member of Joe Public, I have NO PREDICTION to make on future prices!

The only advice I would give is buy if you can afford it in the longer term, factor in rate rises when working out your income and expenditure, and if prices fall DON'T SELL!

The value of homes can fall as well as rise.

Perhaps they see themselves as a helpful counter to the vested interests telling us that house prices can only go up. They don't "know" that either.