Buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying In order to really make money in the markets, you have to be both right and different from everyone else. If you buy Google because you believe they are going to be the next Microsoft, you may be right, but you won’t get much return on your investment because everyone else thinks the same thing and it has already been priced into the stock. In order to make money, you have to be right and different
If you look at the very few people who have ever made their fortunes in the financial markets - men like George Soros, Jimmy Rodgers or Sir John Templeton - this is exactly how they did it. They bought when everyone else was selling and sold when everyone else was buying. They did not follow the herd. They followed their own path. But what made them successful was not only being contrarian but also being right.
Sir John Templeton, for example, correctly figured out when Hong Kong reverted to Chinese control that it wouldn’t be the economic disaster everyone else was predicting. As all the big multi-nationals sold off their holdings in Hong Kong, at fire sale prices, he bought them up. When everyone else came to the same realization he had much earlier, he sold them back at highly inflated prices.
What does this example teach us? Those that succeed - financially and in life - are those that have the confidence to think for themselves and act independently. Success is almost always found in that hidden area where most people do not have the courage to go.
Few are those who see with their own eyes and feel with their own hearts. ~Albert Einstein
Now is a good time to buy! period! We all know the above is correct but no one wants to be the first to dip their toe in the water. We are all followers rather than leaders
"The greatest trick the Devil played, was convincing us all that he did not exist"
Buy now, and you will bankrupt your family for the next 15 years...
Immy, hows the market going old chap? I believe the Gov. of the BOE has just confessed that interest rate cuts arent working, and prices will stay "flat' for the forseeable...
Oh, what about rightmove insisting that sellers slash prices betweebn 5-10% its not going too well for your @house prices only ever go up mantra now is it?
As I have said beofre, I will buy when prices are back at 3.5X earnings, not until... thats when prices fall 30% by the way... THATS when UK housing will be a safe bet again!
Immy does have a point though regardless of the current market situation. I was buying during the last downturn in the early 1990's and did and have done very nicely thankyou very much and I am still buying and will continue to buy property that is correctly priced in good locations. The instant profit days are finished for the moment but that doesn't mean to say that long term prospects aren't good say over a 5 year or 10 year period. Houses are still selling were I am if correctly priced. This credit crunch and lack of mortgage money is but a temporary blip and anyway there are still a lot of cash buyers out there who don't require mortgages and are taking the long term view on property investment and I am one of them. Mel.
And Melboy will continue to make money from property taking the long term view. Just cos you can't buy any old rubbish, do nothing and stick it back on the market straight away, at 50 grand more, does not mean the market has crashed. Pflusk and others think if it's not booming it must crash because that is what newspaper headlines would have us believe. Newspapers will influence opinion for a while longer and the pain will get worse but then the tide will turn and the relentless progress with house prices going up will return, just as day turns into night. These 'clever' people have only a socialist political agenda. They think housing should be for all people regardless of the effort you put into bettering your self. No doubt this is because they have sat on their backsides for too long and are now bitter that everyone around them has got onto the property ladder and done well. It reminds me of the childrens moral tale of the chicken that asks the other barnyard animals to help her make bread. None of them can be bothered to do the hard work of making the bread. When she asks them to help her eat the bread, they all volunteer. Of corse she tells them to poke it! I for one will keep buying for the long term as I know I will do well, just don't ask me to share when i'm a multi millionaire (which is what socialism is is n't it) lazy people riding on the coat tales of industrious people. Windfall taxes being an example!
"The greatest trick the Devil played, was convincing us all that he did not exist"
Those who have done well for themselves, whether it be the money markets or property, have pretty much done so by taking risks. I'm talking of those people who are multi millionaires. It's called speculate to accumulate.
Those who made money by quick buying and selling while the market was rising so fast were pure and simply lucky to be in the right place at the right time.
However, from a home ownership point of view it is down to affordability. There are so many things to think about. The last thing you want is to buy a house and then not be able to afford the repayments. It's not a possibility for everyone. For those who are dead on serious about buying somewhere for an investment in the future, they will again, take risks - even if that risk is moving hundreds of miles away to an area where they can afford.
If you are not investing for quick cash purposes but you actually want a home, then buying is absolutely the best thing to do - if you can. 10 years down the line you'll be glad you did - whatever the state of the market at the time.
*It is not necessary to understand things in order to argue about them. -- Pierre De Beaumarchais
Indeed so. When I've been pulling up some cat urine soaked carpet, or cleaning cigarette butts out of a slimey sink or screwing together a kitchen at midnight, when it would have been much easier to sit in front of the TV or be tucked up in bed I wondered who was barmy.
Just cos you can't buy any old rubbish, do nothing and stick it back on the market straight away, at 50 grand more, does not mean the market has crashed.
I think people on this site need to consider the RISK they talk about above. They talk about risk as if it is something you throw caution to, rather analysing it, and considering whether you will be better off if you hang on.
Would those that bought at the top of the market back in 1990, when property was reassured by the media then as "a safe bet" be considered as buying sensibly? especially as the value of their home and investment subsequently slumped by 25%? Becaus, IMO, thats what you would be doing now. I have been saying on this site, since late 2005 that the UK banking system is Sick to the core, was not sufficiently regulated and it was all going to end in a nasty crash. I was laughed off as a nutter. Well, the chickens have come home to roost, and you are all in denial. Dont worry, the Fear and capitulation stages are well documented in economic cycles and are yet to come. Its at this stage those other investors piled in big, and made a mint. They never bought in at the top of the market, and certainly not one as massively overinflated as the UK housing market.
Anyone that doesnt see the current UK economic situation as one massive trigger to significant real price falls needs their head feeling. The supply and demand arguement has well and truly been blown out the water with supply figures from many UK e.a's far exceeding demand (hence the reason they are not selling). Fact remains, IF YOU CAN ONLY BORROW 3/4 OF WHAT YOU COULD LAST YEAR, THE FORCED SELLERS WILL HAVE TO CUT PRICES BY 25% TO MEET THE IMBALANCE! BTLs are also currently offloading since 1st April, further compounding problems.
When are you all going to wake up and stop believing your self-delusional twaddle?
You cannot have continued house price growth above salaries, eventually somethings got to give. Northern Rock has proved that, more to come I'm afraid! Watch when the pound sinks, IR will be moved dramatically up.
I think Pflusk has a good point. It is impossible for most people to borrow 3/4 the amount that they could last year. I would suggest that Melboy and Immy have large wodges of cash from past property dealings and are able to put down the deposits to make the ratios work for the lenders. Unfortunately if others cannot afford to buy what they then sell on there may not be much money in it. The numbers may only add up if you can hold on to things long term.
True the economic situation will sort the wheat from the chaff,or should that be Chav. There will be no more huge profits made from slapping a coat of magnolia on the walls or installing a cheap £149 white bathroom suite from a DIY shed to replace an avocado one. But people will still be buying and that is and always will be a fact. Mel.
Originally posted by malkie: More doom and gloom propaganda by those who missed the property boat.
But I have a house.
However that is only because prices around Swindon are relatively cheap. I think Melboy may have it right he seems a clever fellow. He buys in Swindon and the demand here is still high, as they are relatively affordable and Swindon has good employment. All he needs to do is stop the 5000 (add extra 0's) houses built here each year and the prices will zip up. They must run out of land soon, musn't they?
Originally posted by malkie: More doom and gloom propaganda by those who missed the property boat.
But I have a house.
However that is only because prices around Swindon are relatively cheap. I think Melboy may have it right he seems a clever fellow. He buys in Swindon and the demand here is still high, as they are relatively affordable and Swindon has good employment. All he needs to do is stop the 5000 (add extra 0's) houses built here each year and the prices will zip up. They must run out of land soon, musn't they?
If I was that clever I wouldn't be on this Forum I also buy outside of Swindon and have done recently. Swindon is a good area and employment is full and as they say round these parts if you are out of work and drawing the Dole it's because you want to be. Mel.
Predictions are that there will be 7 MILLION more people living in the UK by the year 2020.
grrrrreat
here's a wacky idea? Why don't we put them in houses that are already built but are lying empty? I presume that's never been thought of by the government/councils etc. as it seems so simple surely they wouldn't dismiss it and keep building till they were all full?
here's a wacky idea? Why don't we put them in houses that are already built but are lying empty?
If it was so simple to fill all the house standing empty i'm sure there would be no shortage of candidates for them eg.
1. Members of the armed forces living in really squalid military quarters 2. The hundreds of thousands living in bed and breakfast accommodation 3. All those about to have their homes repocessed due to the credit crunch amongst other things
If it really was so simple to fill all those empty houses any Government looking for a quick fix and easy popularity would have done so eons ago
Yes there is a big demand for houses, but if no-one can afford to buy them due to the credit crunch (because they can only get a x3 mortgage, or can only get an 80% mortgage), then they will have to drop in price until they became affordable again. UK housing is, I reckon, at least 10% overvalued and massive house inflation helps very few people in the long term. Our house has gone up on average £900 a month since we bought it 15 years ago - but if we want to move the next house up is a fortune and our kids will only be able to buy if we sell this and give them the money.
Our house is for sale - we can move because we have no mortgage and loads of equity, but I think it a brave first-time buyer who will buy right now instead of waiting a few months.
All Hail the mighty hamsters! 
grrrrreat
put them in houses that are already built but are lying empty?
surely they wouldn't dismiss it and keep building till they were all full?