so I take it from your (short) replies I have blown your argument out the water?

My parents are currently trying to purchase a property and have had to go to full asking price because of other interest in the property - within days of the property coming onto the market!

They have been looking around since November - not a lot about, now quite a few properties are popping up and more importantly selling too!

So just because one house has sold for asking we are supposed to pretend that market conditions have not significantly and I mean significantly worsened recently?

Hardly macro analysis of what is going on is it?

Fact is UKPLC is bust, broke, overborrowed. We are going to have to start paying back the debt sometime, and as soon as we do, the country has to go into recession, its now unavoidable.

quote:

Originally posted by Pflusk:
So just because one house has sold for asking we are supposed to pretend that market conditions have not significantly and I mean significantly worsened recently?

Hardly macro analysis of what is going on is it?

Fact is UKPLC is bust, broke, overborrowed. We are going to have to start paying back the debt sometime, and as soon as we do, the country has to go into recession, its now unavoidable.

Your missing my point a bit - i actually wasnt answering your post - i was answering Immy's original topic question !

You will see we posted within minutes of each other, therefore i didnt see your comment about short replies !!!!!

I'm certainly not saying that because one house has sold for asking price everything is OK, i'm not assuming anything - i'm just posting facts!

No-ones an expert here and so everyones opinion is only their own viewpoint.5 years ago there was supposed to be a big crash and what happened?prices just kept going up !I agree though this time its different.Maybe prices will crash 30% or maybe 5,or maybe just not move one way or the other.We all have to wait to see what happens in America,here,what happens with interest rates,unemployment,etc etc,so please no-one try to pass themselves off as the expert.I hope in all this one good thing may come out of it and that is the obsession by banks to lend money to anyone and any amount and people being able to spend huge amounts on credit cards will finally come to an end.

Agreed

yeah don't you just love it! all those people like Pflusk thought they could call the market back in 2002 said it was about to crash BY 30% (PRICES ONLY EVER GO UP!!!! PERIOD!!!!) YES THEY TAKE A BREATHER EVERY FEW YEARS WAITING FOR SALARIES TO CATCH UP, BUT THEY OUTPERFORM JUST ABOUT EVERY OTHER COMMODITIY!!!!
Buy property and win listen to Pflusk and lose!

Fact is UKPLC is bust, broke, overborrowed. We are going to have to start paying back the debt sometime, and as soon as we do, the country has to go into recession, its now unavoidable.[/QUOTE]


ABSOLUTE RUBBISH WE HAVE NO HOUSING STOCK AND WE INVITE JUST ABOUT ANYONE WHO CAN BREATHE TO OUR SHORES, WHERE ARE THEY GOING TO LIVE, END OF ARGUMENT!

Oh dear, it appears as if immy21 has been drinking. I think you would have found that if I had the option to buy back in 2002 I would have taken it. unfortunately, I was 20, at university, and thus was not an option.

Your argument is ludicrous. Similar to those individuals who said oil would never come close to $100 a barrel.

Immy21, if supply is such an issue, why are there so many 1-2 bed flats left uninhabited in london, manchester, leeds, birmingham and sheffield? Plenty for all of those "who can breathe" (bit racist for my liking) to live in (with all those benefits as well, bet that makes your blood boil as well immy), yet it doesnt go along with the rediculous supply and demand issue.

Which of course will be resolved once this country goes into recession, and every pole and his dog goes back home as a result of no jobs leaving the supply and demand issue long dead in the water. Have a nice day!

"Breather every few years" I suppose we should take the 20% fall (in real terms) back in the early 90's as a "Breather" should we Immy?

Besides the fact the UK is far more endebted, with far higher loan to values, far higher loan to salary and a far higher national debt, trade deficit and % GDP reliant on the finance sector?

Oh, I guess you forgot to mention those facts in your little rant!

Times Quote (business section sunday papers)

"TWO in every five employers plan redundancies over the next three months, according to an influential survey to be published tomorrow. It comes as two leading business groups warn of weak business confidence and a sharp slowdown in growth."

Like I said, different to 2002, different to 2005. Not to be gloated over, certainly to be taken into account.

quote:

Originally posted by Gimmemoney:
No-ones an expert here and so everyones opinion is only their own viewpoint.5 years ago there was supposed to be a big crash and what happened?prices just kept going up !I agree though this time its different.Maybe prices will crash 30% or maybe 5,or maybe just not move one way or the other.We all have to wait to see what happens in America,here,what happens with interest rates,unemployment,etc etc,so please no-one try to pass themselves off as the expert.I hope in all this one good thing may come out of it and that is the obsession by banks to lend money to anyone and any amount and people being able to spend huge amounts on credit cards will finally come to an end.

Pflusk i read this as being directed to you - and you agreed with it !

I posted what my parents are currently experiencing, not what analysts are predicting or what the press are reporting, correct me if i've misunderstood your posts, but your the one saying that people commenting on here are "delluded" and "the country has to go into recession, its now unavoidable" maybe it is, maybe is isnt - who knows!

Pflusk, I'm presuming from my fantastic mathematics that you are only 26?
What do you do for a living? I'm 27 and no jack about the proper ins and out of economy/property. We know immy is an EA, where does your expertise come from? Just out of interest, no sarcasm etc. intended.

A degree in Economics.

And before commiting myself to the biggest loan of my life, I thiough I would do a little research first. I didnt like what I read. Lots of alarm bells went off. That was towards the end of 2005, I certainly dont regret making the decision not to buy. I have been able to build quite a respectable deposit since then (Im not one of those buy now pay later types, everything has to be earned I am afraid).

Just to flip the argument, do you know how many qualifications you need to get to become an estate agent? Someone who assesses your home and assigns it a "Current market value"? Ill tell you. None. Agreed, there are NAEA examinations, but these are far from compulsory, and indeed you can practice without sitting them.

Now, on the basis that EAs make money on %commission, do you not see that its in their best interests to pump the price of property to some rediculous value? This is one of the bigger reasons I am concerned. THe comparison in the city would be letting any old Tom, Dick or Harry off the street into a market-making position on the trade floor and letting them set ANY value for a share. Pure madness. Thats before we get into the rediculous speculation created by programmes such as LX3 that are forced down our throats and sell messages such as "property is a safe investment" and "stretch your credit to the max you can afford". I have seen some overinflated bubbles in my time, from the Dot-com boom and bust to the current bubble in property and some commodities. Anyone that tells you a "soft landing" is the way ahead is, in my opinion, either dillusional, a loony, or a bare faced liar. Show me ONE SINGLE overinflated asset class that has deflated in such a way. It just hasnt happened. ever. period.

If anyone doesnt believe what they read, then fine. Go on the internet and do your own research. Economics is not a science, its not an art. Much of it is guesswork, much on pure gut feeling. If I am wrong, I will pay the penalty and perhaps never get on the ladder. Fair one. There is plenty out there at the moment to get individuals very cagy about property, and again IMHO, for very good reason.

I figure all those 'experts' who predicted a crash 5 years ago may themselves have had economic degrees and kind of got it wrong(err just slightly)If your planning on holding onto your property long term then ride this storm out cos property always comes good in the end (No economic degree here)

This country will eventually go into recession, BECAUSE of high house prices...

quote:

This country will eventually go into recession, BECAUSE of high house prices...

Exactly. And if the answer was to simply reduce interest rates to hold it off - I could be Chairman of the Bank of England.

Pflusk, seven consecutive posts with only two replies! That smacks of desperation.
No one doubts house prices are going in the other direction but by how much is complete guesswork. Economists were saying housing was overvalued in 2001, the market said otherwise. The whole thing is about confidence.

I didn't own my own home until I was older than you nor did many on this site. I don't understand your obsession with houseprices or the way you personalise everything. It's all about opinions mate, chill a little.

quote:

Now, on the basis that EAs make money on %commission, do you not see that its in their best interests to pump the price of property to some rediculous value?

Just do the maths though. If an estate agent charges 2% commission, then if they sell a house for £100,000 they'll get £2,000, whereas if they sell it for £110,000 they'll only get an extra £200.

But they're far more likely to sell it if it's ten grand cheaper, so a lot will just go for the easy two grand rather than have to work their socks off to try to sell the same house at a 10% mark-up just for an extra couple of hundred quid.

quote:

Just do the maths though. If an estate agent charges 2% commission, then if they sell a house for £100,000 they'll get £2,000, whereas if they sell it for £110,000 they'll only get an extra £200.

But they're far more likely to sell it if it's ten grand cheaper, so a lot will just go for the easy two grand rather than have to work their socks off to try to sell the

Yes, but which EA will the seller go with? the one that reckons that they will sell it for 100K or the one that reckons they can get an extra 10K for it?

Simple really innit?

quote Immy"ABSOLUTE RUBBISH WE HAVE NO HOUSING STOCK AND WE INVITE JUST ABOUT ANYONE WHO CAN BREATHE TO OUR SHORES, WHERE ARE THEY GOING TO LIVE, END OF ARGUMENT!

How you construe that as racist Pflusk, I cant imagine. No wonder people are getting to feel too gagged to voice their opinions these days.

Surely Immy has a point. Our shores cannot be extended, building space is finite . Recession wont hit us in isolation . Surely property prices will fluctuate with people movement, but I dont know why they would crash too dramatically unless the country bombs out completely with total loss of economic growth and health and welfare systems.