quote:

If you want to carry on with your miopic "house prices only go up" then fine.

You know nobody says that, I know nobody says that. Those posts exist only between your blinkers.

quote:

the crash... the crash. The crash will happen due...

Pflusk for jeez's sake - *A* crash not *THE* crash. Is not pencilled in for a month's time!
A crash might happen. THE crash is not a certainty just yet

I read on Sky News active today (so it must be true ) that half of some development of penthouses in London that aren't even built yet have already been sold for £100million a pop.

What's 7%, 30% and so on of £100million ?
Would you be risking it with Pflusk's *THE* crash around the corner?!

Personally Pflusk I have an open mind about whats going to happen although I dont think there will be a crash.I know this is what your desperate for so at last you can afford to get your own place.Your viewpoint is very bias.
I watched the Dispatches programme last night and after all we are talking about one guys opinion for Gods sake.Or are u going to drag up Phil 'Pretty Boy' Spencers article again?
If you really want to buy,go for a nice cheap studio,at least your'll be on the property ladder like everyone on this forum.

Me again

If the 'Crash' is going to happen it will now go completely against the run of activity returning to the market. The corner has been turned, the level of resistance has been found. A much slower stagnating market is upon us that could last 6 months or 2 years. Buyers will have more muscle, sellers will slowly wise up to a much longer time unsold on the market. But when we are in the position that both buyer and seller are used to a sideways moving market we will see activity returning to normal.
Oh and the second Richest man on the planet says
'buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone else is buying' Warren Buffett.
Now is a good time to buy. Please someone say something as stupid as 'you will lose money on bricks and morter' if you do you are brave, or Pflusk with his socialist, politics of envy agenda. You should run for Mayor of London!

Ah, there we go, someone who is convinced that "house prices only ever go up...." Sorry, you are deluded.

As for the commie comment, you couldnt be further from the truth. Im actually blue to the core. The difference is, If I was in power, I wouldnt have allowed the FSA turn a blind eye to allowing northern rock and a host of others to lend profligate ammounts to chav britain and wideboys lige Gimmiemoney....Ad as for the current government, I personally wouldnt urinate on Gordon Brown or Tony Blair if they were on fire, they have this destroyed this once great nation by placating the lazy workshy benefit caliming doleites and forcing out the hard workers and well educated. And as for Red Ken, well, I wont go there.

Immy, I take it you have seen the latest land reg house price figures? You know, the ones in that show a fall of 5.7% in greater london, 6.5% in surrey, and a whopping 11.3% fall in my area for detatched properties. Thats going to hurt your EA margins now isnt it!!! (By the way, thats officially 0.7% off a crash, if you didnt know, as defined by the International monetary fund).

As for the news the Alliance and Leicester are massively cutting back on mortgage lending, or that 125% mortgages have gone from the market or "liar loans", te ones where you arent questioned about how much you say you earn, well, theyve all gone as well. Oh, and as for Bradford and Bingley, well, teyve only gone and gt themselves on Credit watch by standards and poors, so I guess there is nothing to worry about!! (if you own property that is and rely on its value as opposed to it being a home).

Oh Immy, I suppose the fact that the CML (now they are only publishing total mortgages as opposed to breakdowns between new loans and home improvement loans, handy timing that hey?) are reporting that lending is down a WHOPPING 40% when comprared to last January.

Oh, I guess you missed the Times today, Ill give yyou a little snippet if you like to give you an idea where your future volumes are headed.

"Britain’s housing market is a “house of cards” that is set to implode after years of reckless mortgage lending, chronic oversupply of new flats and widespread fraud, a leading analyst said yesterday. Quote the times (front page I believe):

“

UK housing market close to collapse, analyst says


We believe it is payback time for years of speculation and sharp practice,” Alastair Stewart, of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, said in a note to clients issued at the start of British housebuilders’ results season.

The warning came amid rising fears of endemic fraud in the housing market. The Financial Services Authority (FSA) said yesterday that it had banned a further two mortgage brokers for submitting false applications to lenders, in what appears to be a growing trend".

Oh dear, looks as if those loans arent looking so sensible now!

And as for the facile comments about getting on the ladder earlier, I will get on the ladder, but why should I pay any more of a slice of my salary than any of you lot did? Just to line YOUR pockets with Equity withdrawl cash, I dont think so. The time is almost upon us where our houses stop acting as an unlimited ATM, and revert back to being homes I am afraid.

quote:

Im actually blue to the core.

Now why aren't I surprised..?

Pflusk do u spend all your time searching for negative data on the UK housing market?U seem to know so much its a little sad.Is it a comfort for someone who doesnt own property
to have it in his own mind that a crash will happen?Then once you manage to buy your own place will you then spend all of your sad time looking for positive data on a rising UK market?

What people misunderstand about House Price Crash advocates is they are not driven by egalitarian motives or to correct a social problem. They were people who thought housing was overpriced by 2000/01 and sold up hoping to pocket the difference when prices went down. They try to manipulate the market by talking up disaster in the hope of creating a tipping point. Capitalism pure and simple.

When it was clear they had misjudged their timing some bought again and others spent the next few years feeding doom and disaster to anyone who'd listen. I'm prepared to believe house prices are in need of correction but the figures talked about are as misguilded as 2000 being the year prices maxed out. Amateur right wing economists trying to turn a situation to their advantage.

sorry cakehead, if you think that markets crash as a result of people talking them down, your wrong. Thts the typical rubbish spouted by the Daily Mail and Express. The stage is now set for a wholesale correction in UK house prices simply because the fundamentals are skewed. And unfortunately now, the chickens have come home to roost.

As for those who sold to rent back in 2000, I dare say that was an imprudent move, purely as it was treating their home as a piggy bank.

Simple fact is, back in 2000, you could buy the average home on an average salary for 3.5X earnings. you wouldnt even touch 3.5X on dual income. This 3.5X figure isnt just plucked out of the air, its a complex function of risk vs reward for the banks. Once prices start to crash, they are going to remember there IS risk, and a significant one in that as part of their investments; if people can only borrow 3.5X single income, I am sorry, house prices have to come down, its quite simple.

Remember this, your house on yor street is only worth the value of a similar type on that street that has sold recently. Once prices start getting chased down, prices will collapse back to a far more sensible level.

Gimme, just read your reply. I dont research this just for that reason. Im making a few bob by shorting House builders/Land ownership shares recently, its in my interests to keep up to date with what is going on in the houseing market and the economy as a whole.

TSB profits up this week plus Barclays losses not as bad as anticipated.The collapse of the banks not quite happening yet.

Pflusk its also in your interests for house prices to collapse so u can afford one.

Will property prices crash or not? Honestly, I have misplaced my crystal ball so you’ll have to bear with me until December when I’ll be able to tell you what happened in 2008. I hope anyway, because even when looking at the past economists have trouble explaining what exactly happened. Yes, most will get the direction right – they can say it went up or down - but look at the different indexes and it starts to be clear that the exact percentage of the move is not as clear cut to get right. When it comes to what exactly has caused the move, then, you are opening another can of worms. And that’s talking about the past! Can you imagine how good forecasts are? You probably guessed right. I don’t know one single person who has got it right 100% of the time...
Yes, there’s a massive credit crunch globally but if you read broadly you’ll notice that analysts offer all sort of possibilities. From the down right pessimists to some who say the situation will not be as bad as people expect it to be.
One of the most frequently quoted reasons for prices to crash, for example, is the “1.4 million people whose fixed terms will end in the next few months”... Look back to 2006 and you’ll notice that those headlines started appearing back then, and so far... My guess is that a good proportion of those people will just cut down expenditure in other areas before they risk losing their homes. Another chunk will see a not so significant increase in the mortgage repayments.
I might be completely wrong but the more I hear about property prices crashing by 20% or 30% the more I remember about the Millennium Bug...

quote:

Originally posted by CVRO:

One of the most frequently quoted reasons for prices to crash, for example, is the “1.4 million people whose fixed terms will end in the next few months”... Look back to 2006 and you’ll notice that those headlines started appearing back then, and so far... My guess is that a good proportion of those people will just cut down expenditure in other areas before they risk losing their homes. Another chunk will see a not so significant increase in the mortgage repayments.

Interesting you should say this. So people stop buying so much, or cut down on going out. These businesses are then affected, and that means job losses AND less tax for the government from businesses, which means more TAX for anyone still working.

quote:

Originally posted by Pflusk:
sorry cakehead, if you think that markets crash as a result of people talking them down, your wrong. Thts the typical rubbish spouted by the Daily Mail and Express. The stage is now set for a wholesale correction in UK house prices simply because the fundamentals are skewed. And unfortunately now, the chickens have come home to roost.

As for those who sold to rent back in 2000, I dare say that was an imprudent move, purely as it was treating their home as a piggy bank.

Simple fact is, back in 2000, you could buy the average home on an average salary for 3.5X earnings. you wouldnt even touch 3.5X on dual income. This 3.5X figure isnt just plucked out of the air, its a complex function of risk vs reward for the banks. Once prices start to crash, they are going to remember there IS risk, and a significant one in that as part of their investments; if people can only borrow 3.5X single income, I am sorry, house prices have to come down, its quite simple.

Remember this, your house on yor street is only worth the value of a similar type on that street that has sold recently. Once prices start getting chased down, prices will collapse back to a far more sensible level.

Err sorry Pflusk markets are driven purely by sentiment. Fear and greed not fundamentals.
It is in fact the Newspapers that control the markets as the underlying conditions at present are better than the early 90's yet the volumes are far lower, why!
Read 'Tulipomania and the madness of crowds' Melboy suggested it some time ago

over the last 50 years property has returned 8% pa!
Property values have gone down in just 5 of the last 50 years the biggest yearly drop being 8% (1992)
'What we learn from history, is that we never learn from history'
Property has over the last 10 years seriously outperformed the stockmarket.
If values CORRECT this is not 'CRASH' why do you use these words unless you have an agenda!
Why do the press use these words, because, if they don't no one is interested and they sell fewer papers
Lets not let the truth get in the way of a good story ay!

immy, you are completely wrong. when you account for wage inflation, houses shed 28% of their value last crash, FACT. Anything under 8% is not a crash FACT. Immy, I fully agree with your "fear and greed".

Property has vastly exceeded the stock market yes, but remember adage "past performance is no indicator of future returns" the reason it has massively outperformed is because it is currently sitting as a massively overinflated bubble due correction. I am well aware of paying heed of history, believe me.

And as for the banks, I think you will find we have only just started. Just wait until the banks start to reveal the undeclared stuff on their books, or the stuff that is currently on the books valued at levels from prior credit crunch, the stuff that is being described as "Toxic Waste".

IMHO, we will see another mid-sized bank go under this year; whether it is taken over by another bank or goes the way of NR, Personally, I think the writing is on the wall.

Immy, in all seriousness, I am getting rather bored of all this now, I have a different outlook to you on this, as with others. My whole point on this issue is I cannot stand the sentiments that have caught many a naieve young buyer out who are NOW, yes NOW experiencing the horrors of negative equity. I dont think we will ever come to an agreement on this, none the less, I will make my final comment on this, I belive, firmly, that prices are due for a significant correction. I personally think we will see prices down 5% over 2008, and the big falls during 2009. If I am wrong, you can all laugh at me at the end of the year.

quote:

Originally posted by Pflusk:
Immy, in all seriousness, I am getting rather bored of all this now,

That wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that you have been ridiculed at almost every turn and not least by your own arguments that have more holes than a string vest

quote:

Originally posted by Pflusk:
I will make my final comment on this, I belive, firmly, that prices are due for a significant correction. I personally think we will see prices down 5% over 2008, and the big falls during 2009. If I am wrong, you can all laugh at me at the end of the year.

Oh please don't make a final statement, I've enjoyed reading your doom ridden tales of woe for years (and I really mean that). So what did you predict 2 years ago? Heres just a small sample.

(01/06/05) "Besides, as I say prices ARE coming down, another £300 off according to Hometrack this month as an average."

(25/06/05) "Why dont you wait to buy? The property market is in a fairly steady state of decline... alternatively, put a low offer in. the worst they can say is no. It wont be long before sellers will realise this is the only way to sell in the upcoming climate. Go for 20% off initially. You have nothing to loose!

(09/06/05) "Barclays are predicting a IR rise next month...

He he he...

Watch those prices come crashing down..."


lol (but please keep them coming!)

To be fair Baldrick, prices were slipping in 2005, and the BoE and government paniced with that drop in IRs. Had they done their job to control inflation, I think we would've seen house prices level off, or even dip a touch.

The 10% year on year increases in personel debt cannot go on indefinitely when wage inflation is around 2-4%. Something's gotta give!

Almost everyone accepts house prices will fall at some point, but for the majority of posters on this forum, it matters not one jot because they have got on with their lives regardless.

quote:

If I am wrong, you can all laugh at me at the end of the year.

I'm impatient by nature - I'll just laugh now if you don't mind

I'm with BB though, don't stop posting, you really do make a good debate, which is always good to read I like the way you stick to your guns. You remind me of Dad's Army, "we're doooomed, we're all DOOOOOMED"

Re housing market, I've just read the local vision paper and the north is apparently doing okay as people from down south are moving up here to more affordable areas. It quoted a growth of 4% in 07 for Lancaster and 2% for Leyland and a "strong" 7.9% for Morecambe, wahey!!
Also it said there had been a rise in February 08 too. It's only numbers and what not unless you sell for that, but still, I'm not too worried yet!

Also I think that £130,000 / £140,000 for a decent sized semi etc, is not unreasonable. I don't think there's a pressing need for a correction round where I am. Surely the bubble is going to burst in London and the like, if it's going to burst at all? I agree the prices are crazy down there, when essentially they are just roads of the same type in Morecambe. Only without the just-lovely Morecambe people of course.