Since everyone is in such a reflective mood and determined to make the most of things - youll probably appreciate the sentiment of this email I found in my inbox this morning from a friend.

Imagine there is a bank, that credits your account each morning with £86,400. It carries over no balance from day to day. Every evening it deletes whatever part of the balance you failed to use during the day.



What would you do? Draw every penny of course! Each of us has such a bank! Its name is Time. Every morning it credits you with 86,400 seconds. Every night it writes it off, as lost, whatever of this you have failed to invest to good purpose. It carries over no balance, it allows, no overdraft. Each day it opens a new account for you. Each night it burns off the remains of the day. If you fail to use the days deposit, the loss is yours. There is no going back. There is no drawing against the ‘tomorrow’ . You must live in the present days deposits. Invest it so as to get from it the upmost in health, happiness and success. The clock is running , so make the most of today.



To realize the value of one year, ask a student who failed a grade.

To realize the value of one month, ask a Mother who gave birth to a premature baby.

To realize the value of one hour, ask the lovers who are waiting to meet.

To realize the value of one minute, ask a person who has just missed a train.

To realize the value of one second, ask a person who has just avoided an accident.



Treasure every moment that you have , and remember that time waits for no-one. Yesterday is history ….tomorrow is a mystery ….

Today is a gift - that’s why we call it the present!



Thats got to be positive enough for you Druzil! Congrats on the new family member.

Congratulations on your new baby, makes you put things in perspective dosen't it.We have lost sight of the fact that our houses are our homes,our sanctuary and not a cash cow.They are where we raise our family and form our memories, lets get back to that.Thank god for the positive attitudes expressed in this post,I had stopped visiting because of the rudeness and doom and gloom .At the end of the day as long as we have our health and our families, anything is bearable.

..........and I meant the rudeness of the few not the majority.

I agree with you Lawyerlady, homes not cash machines.

As for 'doom and gloom'. Affordable housing does not equal doom and gloom, except for BTLers or MEWers.

I dont see doom and gloom, I see a new dawn.

the sun is shining from where I am sitting, especially as Halifax just confirmed that I have saved 4K in the past month on average by not buying!!!!

quote:

Originally posted by Pflusk:
I dont see doom and gloom, I see a new dawn.

the sun is shining from where I am sitting, especially as Halifax just confirmed that I have saved 4K in the past month on average by not buying!!!!

Hi Pflusk
I too am bearish on the short term future for house prices. Can you tell me how you will make the market work for you and the indicators you might look for? What are your strategies? There must be a future Pfusk sitting by perhaps an open fire enjoying the warmth of his success? How did he get there? As you may know from reading the previous posts, my stategy actually relies on house prices falling, my goal being one of those 4 storey Victorian jobbies. I believe that it is achievable as long as I am realistic about the market and do my best to stay ahead of the game. If that means holding back for a while or jumping in at a certain time, then we will do our best judgement call at the time. However in all this I think there must be a long term plan. That is the message in this thread.
Personally I am looking to a time when mortgage approval levels start to show a sustained rise above the 85,000 mark, and believe at the moment that this could be perhaps 3 to 4 years away (although I'm sure it may reach these levels during some spring months). I need to make sure that I have the money ready to move when it all plays out. However as with all these things it is a prediction and my view. If it all recovers next year then I have less time to build my reserves. With that in mind I must get back to work.
Cheers Druzil

quote:

I dont see doom and gloom, I see a new dawn.

that's really deep man.

This is all getting a bit "grasp every second of time and go live your life sister" for me

I have no idea what is going to happen in this country with anything. I know what I'd like to happen but it's not run by me ....

quote:

I have no idea what is going to happen in this country with anything. I know what I'd like to happen but it's not run by me

Ms HC for MP. We need a new one cos they've been tinkering with the constituencies again.
Be afraid. The HC whipback lash is coming...

quote:

Originally posted by Druzil:
I too am bearish on the short term future for house prices. Can you tell me how you will make the market work for you and the indicators you might look for?

We can't predict the future and we are all different. I go by "the trend is yoour friend".

Is the trend still downwards? If yes, I steer clear. The price of the asset may be much lower than a year ago but a further 10% fall is still a 10% fall.

When the plateau has been reached and it levels out and occasionally turns upwards, that's the time to start thinking.

I'd rather miss the chance of buying right at the low point that take on the risk of investing and having a further fall.

Again, just my opinion.

It worked well when I did the opposite at peaks last year. I sold my share about 2% off peak, I switched my cash in Euro at the same etc - because the trends were clearly the markets were struggling and the peak had been reached and the were signs of it going downwards.

I only did this because I'd learned from the mistakes of not acting decisively before when the markets changed (notably in 2000) .

The problem at the moment is what to invest in, in the meantime, what to do with cash holdings. Of course, it's possible to make profits if speculating, but a lot of us would rather preserve what we have.

quote:

Ms HC

I'm officially a 'Ms' actually.

Further to my wonderings of what will happen with this country ... house prices exploded and went up, up, up then a fall.
What happens to petrol prices now? They are rising steadily. I remember one summer when everyone baulked at the idea of petrol over £1. Now no-one baulks, we just pay it.
What happens if the oil prices go up and up and up - do they (hopefully?) have a crash too?

No I am afraid, its not that simple.

Google "Peak Oil Theory". Not good. What peak oil basically says is, there may be a squillion barrels of oil in the ground, but if daily production doesnt meet demand, that is when prices start to surge. In other words, the price doesnt rise exponentially when oil runs out, prices rise exponentially when the supply curve starts to drop. Which it has. Or at least hasnt kept up with demand.

Note this is different to house prices, many equate supply being number of houses vs number of people wanting a house. Wrong. Housing prices has EVERYTHING to do with finance available. In this case, it works in the opposite sense. People WANT to get a mortgage, but becuase of the looming recession they cant. Thus prices have to fall. The fact that X number of people want a house is irrelevant; what is relevant is that they can secure lending that matches the offer. Thus, prices are about to fall off a cliff.

Many argue oil prices are going up due to speculation. I disagree. I cant find a single piece of evidence to support this. The only way prices will fall is if demand drops significantly. That will take 2 things.

1) Global depression/recession putting a dampner on demand.

2) China/Middle east needs to spend its dollar/stirling reserves (try multi-trillion dollar accounts here :-( ) . Both the Fed and the BOE have been printing 14% more money every year for the past few years. All this money was saved up by the chinese/middle east, as we were spending much of it on foreign tat and our oil deficit. Now, we are paying the price for loose monetary policy as that money is now being spent. THAT is why everything is going up in price.


Put simply, Increased oil costs can be justified. House prices at their current rediculous level cannot with lending in the crisis its in; If the yanks do anything despearte in Iran, expect 2 squid a litre at the pump

Oh, I thought I should add, the above scenario would probably end up with me losing my job as it is currently dependent on oil not getting to silly prices. Its not one I want, unfortunately I dont let this blinker me into thinking it wont happen.

Im not confident in this government keeping things on the straight and narrow; thats why I am currently learning a second language and also how to programme as well as develop skills in my current job. Its tiring, but I want protection just in case things get really bad :-0

Wow, Pflusk. You've really thought about this haven't you? What language are you learning? Is this with a view to emmigration if things get tougher here?

Yep, currently learning french - again, I did it at GCSE.

Nothing special, just doing a couple of DVDs "Speak and Learn" stuff on the way to work... thats 2 hours a day that I would other wise be listening to Radio 4 or Radio 1...

Learning C# programming for the past 2 years, finally getting somewhere with that, although it took a while to actually understand what I was reading...

Work allows me pretty good advancement with increased work related qualifications, although there is no extra pay for extra responsibility, its more for personal gratification.

As for emmigration, I have put a lot of serious thought into that yes, but after a lot of soul searching, I dont know whether I could abandon the UK... I did at first though. My thought process is now along the lines of any corrention to the UK whilst unfortunately painful, is necessary, not just for our economy, but for social well-being. Enough is enough; the Human Rights act needs repealing or at least modifying, victims need to feel justice, even if punishment could be considered "revenge" for lawbreakers actions. these sorts of things never happen when things are rosy either...In the long run, it may make the UK a place that is worth living in. I currently am abroad, have been to NZ this year, loved it, but still didnt "feel" like home...

The most important thing I would emphasise, as I have done to friends recently, is dont let yourself become a victim. dont rely on the state unless you have to, or have good reason to. Do something if you can see trouble on the horizon, at best, you were wrong, but you are better qualified, at worst you still succomb to whatever you predicted but at least you have the thought that you tried... The UK I believe would be a much better place if WE as individuals empowered ourselves to correct our own problems, instead of relying on others. That doesnt mean that you shouldnt help someone in need though, all the same....

PF.

Well, Gordon has gone and done it. He is altering the maximum amount of debt he can borrow durning the course of the economic cycle. we are doomed, and these are the reasons you should want him to cut public sector spending instead:

1) Increased debt was the one thing the IMF warned we should not do.

2) It will cause even higher inflation... rates WILL go significantly go up in the future if they pull this one.

3) It will be a step towards economic union with the EU. Why? Because the pound is about to take a significant hammering. Johhny foreigner, who curently holds stirling as an investment wont be happy when inflation is hammering the value of his money, so he will sell it. Oh, there is nearly a trillion in foreign sov weath fund holdings of stirling. If the pound f alls towards parity with the euro, you can bet your bottom dollar that they will push it as a means of sorting out the state finances.

3) He knows he wont get reelected. the major issues eresulting from this will occur next political cycle, when he knows the conservatives will get in power.

Someone, PLEASE call a general election today...

we NEED to get this man out of power drastically before Gordon and his one brain cell destroy our economy in totality!

I'm with you, Pflusk. You make the point that Gordon won't get re-elected. I don't remember him ever being elected in the first place...