When did humans populate these planets and what are we going to do about it?
Don't answer because l have the answer... Taking words from Arthur Conan Doyle 'Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.
Yes, pluto was at its closest point to the sun just 18 years ago. Claiming that pluto going through a period of warming as it moves away from its closest point is evidence the sun is causing real global warming here on earth, is like claiming that July being hotter than June (our equivalent "closest point") is evidence the sun is causing real global warming here on earth. It simply shows how clueless of basic science the global warming deniers are.
Pluto is a minuscule dot on the horizon about 10 times further off than Jupiter. Only basic knowledge about it is known.
Before we went to Jupiter and Saturn we had absolutely no idea of the diversity of geological and weather phenomena that would exist on the various satellites.
We might have a better idea of Pluto in 2015 when the NASA "New Horizons" spaceship makes its flypast.
A typically affluent white male condesending "Carbon Footprinter" asked me the same question last week and I explained to him it's the same thing as what makes you less cold in winter because you are closer to it... It's that big yellow thing in the sky I think they call The Sun.
It was like the scene from Fr Ted were Ted is in the caravan with Dougal and the toy cows are on the table.
Except in my case try to imagine that Dougal was a middle aged Irish Government public servant who was talking down to me like I was retarded for explaining that Sun is the source of most of the earth's heat and not RyanAir.
Originally posted by Cloud Man: Is an 18 year phase lag to be expected from the physics of pluto then?
As Steve_M points out, we know almost nothing of Pluto. But lags in things warming up and cooling down is well understood physics and so just as it is often hotter around 2pm than at noon or warmer in July than in June, this discovery that Pluto is warming as it moves away from its nearest point to Earth is not unexpected.
I think any relationship between Pluto and Earth is meaningless at this point. The orbital cycle and distance from earth make it centuries before we'll have any relatible baseline to compare with any climate cycles here on earth.
What's more interesting is the apparent very recent warming occuring on Mars. There is a fairly good baseline there from the past 20-30 years of obsrevations, which is about 15-20 Mars years, and we are beginning to understand the history if climate change over the eons there.
“Man-made greenhouse warming has [made a] small contribution [to] the warming on Earth in recent years, but [it] cannot compete with the increase in solar irradiance,” Abdussamatov told LiveScience in an email interview last week. “The considerable heating and cooling on the Earth and on Mars always will be practically parallel."
But Abdussamatov’s critics say the Red Planet’s recent thawing is more likely due to natural variations in the planet’s orbit and tilt. On Earth, these wobbles, known as Milankovitch cycles, are thought to contribute to the onset and disappearance ice ages.
“It’s believed that what drives climate change on Mars are orbital variations,” said Jeffrey Plaut, a project scientist for NASA’s Mars Odyssey mission. “The Earth also goes through orbital variations similar to that of Mars.”
As for Abdussamatov’s claim that solar fluctuations are causing Earth’s current global warming, Charles Long, a climate physicist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratories in Washington, says the idea is nonsense.
I don't understand how these changes can possible be attributed to orbital dynamics on Mars. The variations over 15-20 Mars years are far too slight to account for this. Clearly something else is going on than strictly Total Solar Irradiance - or there is some component to TSI that we dont understand completely. I'd like to say that cloud formation is affected by the cosmic ray flux which is determined by the sun's activity like it appears to be here on earth. But there are no clouds (very few anyway) on Mars and the atmosphere is far too thin to make a difference anyway. I assume this is what Long is talking about when he says there is no physical process that can account for this.
Recent observations have shown that every Mars summer the polar ice caps on Mars are shrinking year over year and the system is not in equilibrium. In my mind, this is too much of a coincidence with what's happening on Earth not to say there is not a significant solar factor going on here.
Here are some more links on this subject.
This one is from realclimate.org which is biased to the AGW view and is too dismissive of any evience that contradicts that point of view and automatically accepting of any evidence that confrims it. Still there are some good discussions there. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=192
While, of course we know very little about Pluto the lag in this case is interesting. Bear in mind that there are two closest approaches per orbit so the thermal cycle is 124 years long so an 18 year lag is a phase lag of around 52 degrees - putting that into the earth analogy given earlier its like it continuing to get hotter into the second half of August. Given that the mass of Pluto is only about 8% of that of earth and the period of the cycle is so long (both factors that you would expect to reduce any phase lag) it is at the very least interesting.
Oh, yes, and I forgot to mention that the low specific heat capacities of solids at such low temperatures would be expected to shorten the thermal timeconstant still further
This has got to be one of the weakest strings to the scientific argument against significant AGW. The amount of data in all cases is so minimal and the conditions present on other planets and moons so enitirely unlike those on Earth as to make any conclusions relating to the Earth entirely speculative.
Well it's a stretch to make any conclusions I agree. It's pretty clear that the climate is warming on Mars, and the cause is uncertain - just like it is not certain why the climate is changing here on Earth.
The only constant between the two worlds is solar output, which is known to be in flux. If we were to apply the same logic that AGW proponents apply, I would make some outragous comment that this definately proves a link because of my bias assumption that the 2 facts must be linked and make my reasoning fit that assumption, just as AGW proponents assume that CO2 levels and temperature are linked and fit all evidence to fit that assumption.
Mars is obeying Earth's Milankovitch cycles, so if it is a wobble causing Martian warming it is a wobble we all share. Our planets wobble together clearly showing an extra terrestrial forcing.
Originally posted by tjlyerly: Well it's a stretch to make any conclusions I agree. It's pretty clear that the climate is warming on Mars, and the cause is uncertain - just like it is not certain why the climate is changing here on Earth.
It is not "pretty clear that the climate is warming on Mars". We have a few images of changes in the coverage of the southern polar cap. That is it. We have tonnes of evidence that human activity is changing the Earth's climate, yet the global warming deniers claim there is no certainty. We have a few pictures of Mars' south pole and global warming there is "pretty clear" according to global warming deniers. The blatant double standards of reality deniers is staggering.
We can be fairly sure that the warming on Mars is not due to increased CO2.......as the Martian atmosphere is already 96% CO2
What's more, atmospheric CO2 is to all extents and purposes the ONLY greenhouse factor on Mars. Water vapour on Mars is less than a millionth that on Earth. The average impact of CO2 on Mars is a warming of about 5 degrees.
That said, probably the main factor in polar cap melting on Mars is the action of Martian dust...which settles on the poles and absorbs extra heat. But of course, you then have to explain why this should be occuring more now.....especially given that there's no discernable long term pattern in Martian dust storms.
It is pretty clear that the climate is warming on Mars from observations from the past 30 years - which is very well studied. Even realclimate.org, which is a pretty biased site with respect to all things global warming related, agrees. It puts the cause down to regional dust storms and other weather patterns - which is possible but not proven.
As for Milankovitch cycles. Of course, Mars has these cycles but they work on scales of tens of thousands of years. It cannot account for decadal changes just like they woudn't account for any recent changes here on Earth.
Everyone needs to take off their political blinders here. I agree it is possible that AGW is responsible for the recent trends in climate here on earth. But before that can be proven in my mind, I'll need an accounting of previous climate changes here on Earth over the past 10,000 years (which are much much larger in magnitute on short and long term scales than anything we are now experiencing) and a reasonable explanation of why those factors can be ruled out.
Haven't seen that yet. All I've seen is speculation and unproven policitally motivated calls to action.
As for Milankovitch cycles. Of course, Mars has these cycles but they work on scales of tens of thousands of years. It cannot account for decadal changes just like they woudn't account for any recent changes here on Earth.
Mars Milankovitch cycles are the same as the Earth Milankovich cycles. So Martian warming can't be explained by wobbles, and even if it could there is strong evidence that the Earth and Mars wobble in symphony because of Solar forcing (think of two people leaning into a strong wind).
Someone tell me how it is that the temperature of Jupiter's cloud deck rose 150 degrees or more between Pioneer 10 and Cassini? From the story "Mystery Shrouds The Largest Planet" Feb 1975 National Geographic, Jupiter's cloud deck ranges from minus 300 to minus 220 degrees F. Now it is listed routinely at minus 150 degrees C. ( minus 101 F) How is it this temperature jump is never mentioned? How is it that the Second Great Red Spot is never mentioned?
Originally posted by tjlyerly: Well it's a stretch to make any conclusions I agree. It's pretty clear that the climate is warming on Mars, and the cause is uncertain - just like it is not certain why the climate is changing here on Earth.
It is not "pretty clear that the climate is warming on Mars". We have a few images of changes in the coverage of the southern polar cap. That is it. We have tonnes of evidence that human activity is changing the Earth's climate, yet the global warming deniers claim there is no certainty. We have a few pictures of Mars' south pole and global warming there is "pretty clear" according to global warming deniers. The blatant double standards of reality deniers is staggering.
Science can never be a closed book. lf it was, science would be dead. There is always the 'what if?' and it should never be ignored. Use of terms such as 'deniers' is to repress anyone who disagrees with the consensus of opinion. 'Consensus' means 'Agreement in the judgment or opinion reached by a group as a whole'. It does not mean 'certainty'
As for reality, whether you believe in man-made GW or not the REALITY is .. the likes of China will still carry on with their rapid industrialisation!
ls the consensus of opinion that we can control China and the likes? You could ofcourse use the term 'deniers' to apply to them but it won't stop them.
Originally posted by tjlyerly: It is pretty clear that the climate is warming on Mars from observations from the past 30 years - which is very well studied.
Perhaps you would care to share some of the evidence then. All the global warming denial sites simply harp on about a few pictures from the last decade showing changes to the Martian south pole. Hardly "well studied".
Originally posted by papertiger0: Mars Milankovitch cycles are the same as the Earth Milankovich cycles.
No they are not. One of the Milankovitch cycles - the variation in the Earth's axial tilt - takes place over a 40,000 year cycle with a tilt variation of just 4 degs. The axial tilt variation on Mars is extreme (from 15 to 35 degs) and takes place over a 120,000 year cycle. There are variations in Mars' orbit and axial tilt, but they are not the same as Earth's Milankovitch cycles.
