Freak of nature or the shape of things to come?

The main impact noted in the IPCC Working Group 2 (Impacts) report is that northern europe will experience more flooding in winter. So sign of things to come, yes, but wrong season.

Steve_M

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So sign of things to come, yes, but wrong season.

Or IPCC are wrong.

Here's a plug for the recent forecast of Atlantic hurricane activity based on one of the models as are used for IPCC. Predictions are for a further 10 +/- 3 storms this season (out to November). This prediction is much lower than the normal statistical methods. It correctly predicted a quiet year last year whereas the statistical methods were wrong.

So if the model is right the last storm this year should be called Ian, Javier, Kevin, Larry, Mark, Neville or Olivier. If it goes beyond that into Peter, Quentin, Richard...etc. then the statistical models win this year's round.

Its just weather.

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Originally posted by Son of Mulder:
Steve_M

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So sign of things to come, yes, but wrong season.

Or IPCC are wrong.

It's feasible that the details could be wrong on small scale projections of change. But I don't think you have good grounds for claiming that the warming will be averted.

However the model results Steve M alludes to have already been seen. CRU Information Sheet 15.


At the BBC there's a http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6245752.stm]Q&A on the floods.. In which the forecaster states it's connected with the Polar Jet, which is a jet stream associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation / Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). CRU informations sheet 11. During the Storm the England was cradled to the East, South and West by a horseshoe. Across the open end of the Horseshoe was the band where the cloud rolled across and it poured down. There's an archive of plots of JetStream activity here but June's aren't yet available.

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Originally posted by Lost in Kate Winslet:
Its just weather.

I like the "just" as no doubt would the people of Sheffield !

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Originally posted by Seskinreay:

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Originally posted by Lost in Kate Winslet:
Its just weather.

I like the "just" as no doubt would the people of Sheffield !

Yeah well, it happens doesn't it. It wasn't outside the range of normal weather patterns. The lesson that people should take home is that we've gotten used to a mild period of weather and development has reduced the flood plains available to deal with heavy precipitation. Adaption to ensure that we can cope with weather should be the priory. Not pissing about with carbon emissions reduction.

It's looking bad for the flooded areas again.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/#no_url As of now you can click forward and see what's coming.

Best of luck to anyone affected by the flooding.

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Originally posted by Lost in Kate Winslet:
Adaption to ensure that we can cope with weather should be the priory. Not pissing about with carbon emissions reduction.

The exact opposite would be better. Adaptation? At what rate? To what extent? Where would it end? Could we even catch up with the GW's rate of change? It would be far far better to cut down on the 7gigtonnes of CO2, etc being dumped into the atmosphere.

Have a read of this.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/6247802.stm

Can you see them adapting? First them then us. Adaptation? Ballcocks.

Nother one.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/28/world/28deserts.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

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Originally posted by Lost in Kate Winslet:

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Originally posted by Seskinreay:

quote:

Originally posted by Lost in Kate Winslet:
Its just weather.

I like the "just" as no doubt would the people of Sheffield !

Yeah well, it happens doesn't it. It wasn't outside the range of normal weather patterns. The lesson that people should take home is that we've gotten used to a mild period of weather and development has reduced the flood plains available to deal with heavy precipitation. Adaption to ensure that we can cope with weather should be the priory. Not pissing about with carbon emissions reduction.

Not in June it doesn't. "It's just weather" is killing people - it was European heat waves a couple of years ago! Adapt yes, start living sustainably and in sympathy with the environment.

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Originally posted by Seskinreay:
Not in June it doesn't. "It's just weather" is killing people - it was European heat waves a couple of years ago! Adapt yes, start living sustainably and in sympathy with the environment.

Weather always does - cold kills a lot more people than heat. Always has always will - it's just that today emphasis is on deaths during hot days is used to bury deaths due to cold.

Maybe that one of the things that we should be praising GW about?

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/edinburgh.cfm?id=1591682006
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/1754561.stm

[QUOTE]Originally posted by APL:

Weather always does - cold kills a lot more people than heat. Always has always will - it's just that today emphasis is on deaths during hot days is used to bury deaths due to cold.

QUOTE]

Reminds me of Stephen King's book "Thinner". An overweight lawyer suffers a curse that makes him thinner and thinner. A few months later he reaches his optimum weight and enjoys himself. But the curse keeps on going.

So if I avoid mention of the damage that's happening in the warmer countries there will come a time when OAP deaths from hypothermia will decrease to a low level. But the thermometer will not stop there. (Re. French OAP deaths in the 2003 heatwave.)

Deaths from heatstroke, malaria, etc will increase. The planet doesn't have a thermometer that we can set at will you know. Or set back.

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Originally posted by APL:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Seskinreay:
Not in June it doesn't. "It's just weather" is killing people - it was European heat waves a couple of years ago! Adapt yes, start living sustainably and in sympathy with the environment.

Weather always does - cold kills a lot more people than heat. Always has always will - it's just that today emphasis is on deaths during hot days is used to bury deaths due to cold.

Maybe that one of the things that we should be praising GW about?


Is it cold or poverty that kills in winter?

Anyway, so now we have June floods and heatwaves to add to the list of killer weather.

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Originally posted by Seskinreay:

Anyway, so now we have June floods and heatwaves to add to the list of killer weather.

Just a slightly hysterical response here. You are definitely over-reacting to events. People have always died as a result of weather. Heatwaves have always killed the vulnerable as have cold snaps. Water has always been dangerous as have thunderstorms.

Still look on the bright side, the water companies cannot complain about drought this summer.

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Originally posted by realprimate:

The exact opposite would be better. Adaptation? At what rate? To what extent? Where would it end? Could we even catch up with the GW's rate of change? It would be far far better to cut down on the 7gigtonnes of CO2, etc being dumped into the atmosphere.

People die due to the weather now. Not in some undetermined future. You're suggesting that we don't worry about those people? Bit heartless isn't it.

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Originally posted by Lost in Kate Winslet:

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Originally posted by Seskinreay:

Anyway, so now we have June floods and heatwaves to add to the list of killer weather.

Just a slightly hysterical response here. You are definitely over-reacting to events. People have always died as a result of weather. Heatwaves have always killed the vulnerable as have cold snaps. Water has always been dangerous as have thunderstorms.

Still look on the bright side, the water companies cannot complain about drought this summer.

I'm hysterical about man's destructive power yes. You're in denial. What is your vision of the future? More of the same? What do you think of the BBC's Saving Planet Earth? Are you unimpressed by the messages in there?

You can argue models of this and that all you like but just take a look out of the window!!

On the subject of floods here's an interactive whatchamacallit showing what happens when the sea level rises up to 14m.

There's a growing school of thought that the IPCC have been too conservative with their projected sea level rises.

http://flood.firetree.net/

The interactive whatychamacallit is actually called a map.

Notice that you say 'when' the sea level rises rather than 'if', and that a growing 'school of thought' whatever that may actually be.

Usual greeny brainwashed nonsense.

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Originally posted by engineerer:

Usual greeny brainwashed nonsense.

Well, that's a good open-minded sceptical comment.

Welcome anyway!

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Originally posted by engineerer:
The interactive whatychamacallit is actually called a map.

Notice that you say 'when' the sea level rises rather than 'if', and that a growing 'school of thought' whatever that may actually be.

Usual greeny brainwashed nonsense.

Hey! My first troll!

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Originally posted by engineerer:
The interactive whatychamacallit is actually called a map.

Notice that you say 'when' the sea level rises rather than 'if', and that a growing 'school of thought' whatever that may actually be.

Usual greeny brainwashed nonsense.

Well you'll be relived to know that this is some sense from a non-green, former sceptic, right-winger.


CO2 is increasing due to human emissions.

The probability density function of the equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 to 560ppm(over pre-industrial) is shown by a wide body of research to centre at around 3degc (likely a little bit less).

At the current rate of emissions we are likely to hit 2xCO2 by about 2050. Which means that by then we will be committed to a global warming of 3degC. We are already feeling detrimental effects at 36% above pre-industrial CO2, e.g. glacial recession or the 2003 European Heatwave, Stott et al. pdf 217kb.

We've used some 300Gtons Carbon to get to that 36% above pre industrial. There are estimated to be recoverable reserves of some 6000Gtons Carbon, mainly as coal.


And for those who think it's going to be an easy ride here in the UK...

However much global warming is, it'll be warmer here in the UK. And our weather depends crucially on the location and behaviour of phenomena like the Jet Stream. Change the pole-equator temperature gradient and you'll change phenomona like the jet stream. This rain we keep having is because of the Jet Stream (NAO/AO), we're getting storms that would normally track further north. At present the El-Nino has subsided and we could slip into La-Nina(See here), that's messing things up all over the globe.

So whilst we're living in a global warming world - so it's impact cannot be ruled out, it seems to me the end of the El-Nino is more likely to blame for Sheffield and all.

That said, it's an indicator of the sort of events we'll very likely face more frequently in the decades to come. Best start thinking about those flood plains, and more importantly what we do with them.

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Originally posted by Seskinreay:
I'm hysterical about man's destructive power yes. You're in denial. What is your vision of the future? More of the same? What do you think of the BBC's Saving Planet Earth? Are you unimpressed by the messages in there?

You can argue models of this and that all you like but just take a look out of the window!!

Grey and overcast but dry at present outside my window.

You're hysterical and without cause to be. This is weather. It happens. If you look at where the flooding has occurred then its nothing new for those areas. My local TV news reported first flood in 30 years for one place and 60 years in another. None of this is unique and has occurred in a slightly cooler climate previously. Rivers do have this propensity to flood if there is heavy precipitation.