In the Shadow of the Moon - actually, I think it's already out...

quote:

Originally posted by Lucibee:
Sesk - I've already answered that one several times (see mid-America denuding of trees, leads to climate change, people desert civilization with no signs of them just having moved and set up elsewhere).

To add another - but I'm not sure of the details - I'm pretty sure that the human race suffered near extinction a few tens of thousand years ago, which reduced us to just a few thousand individuals from whom we are all descended.

It's only very recently that we've occupied the Earth in large enough numbers, and with dirty and powerful enough technology, to have a substantial effect on the climate directly.

I think Rog is after a "climate catastrophe" that is not only caused by man, but was global, and pretty well identical to the sort of scenario we are all going on about. So he's out of luck. I expect he only believed that man could go to the moon once we'd been there, and even then thought it was some sort of massive conspiracy (oh I'm so looking forward to that new documentary...).

Lucibee, I've come to the conclusion that R58 is a useful tool for reiterating our views/concerns and constantly highlighting the flaws in the overall BAU arguments which he serves so badly. Of course, he'll never concede a single point because his is a closed mind. Good fun though. I love it when he completely ignores me !!

quote:

Originally posted by Lucibee:
In the Shadow of the Moon - actually, I think it's already out...

Was release to UK cinemas on 2nd Nov accord to the Beeb.

quote:

I remember a few years ago a fashionable fear was that a giant meteor "might" crash into the world and cause a catastrophe... there was all sorts of talk about the urgency of doing "something to prepare for it, or to try to stop it" - by sending up hugely expensive satellites to look out for these things and destroy them. I "might" win a £10 million tomorrow... but I'm not going to prepare for it.

"The bigger they are, the harder they fall" is often true. And the bigger one gets, the more care one must take to prevent falling. That's alright because, being bigger, one has the power and the resources to expend on looking out for high-risk low-probability events.

We did after all have a large impact in Siberia a century ago. Such an impact on a major civilisation would have large consequences. But without the investment in telescopes and space missions (a tiny proportion of GDP) we would have little idea of the size of the risk of future impacts. As it happens, the risk appears to be quite small. A large number of "earth crossing" asteroids have been found, but none appear likely to hit the earth. But it is conceivable that an object could have been found with a high probability of impact within, say, the next century in which case the investment would be worthwhile.

The winning 10 million analogy does not work because it is not a risk. A more apt analogy is the millions who take out life insurance for the benefit of their dependants despite the low probability of dying.

quote:

despite the low probability of dying.

I thought the probability of dying was quite high - some say it's as high as 1.0...

But that probably came from someone with more than the average number of limbs...

quote:

I thought the probability of dying was quite high - some say it's as high as 1.0...

Sorry, I was forgetting that some of you were mere mortals.

I'll rephrase that to "despite the low probability of dying unexpectedly, eg. by being hit by a meteorite, dying of SARS, BSE or bird flu, or of just being hit by a plain old bus."

quote:

Originally posted by Steve_M:

quote:

I remember a few years ago a fashionable fear was that a giant meteor "might" crash into the world and cause a catastrophe... there was all sorts of talk about the urgency of doing "something to prepare for it, or to try to stop it" - by sending up hugely expensive satellites to look out for these things and destroy them. I "might" win a £10 million tomorrow... but I'm not going to prepare for it.

"The bigger they are, the harder they fall" is often true. And the bigger one gets, the more care one must take to prevent falling. That's alright because, being bigger, one has the power and the resources to expend on looking out for high-risk low-probability events.

We did after all have a large impact in Siberia a century ago. Such an impact on a major civilisation would have large consequences. But without the investment in telescopes and space missions (a tiny proportion of GDP) we would have little idea of the size of the risk of future impacts. As it happens, the risk appears to be quite small. A large number of "earth crossing" asteroids have been found, but none appear likely to hit the earth. But it is conceivable that an object could have been found with a high probability of impact within, say, the next century in which case the investment would be worthwhile.

The winning 10 million analogy does not work because it is not a risk. A more apt analogy is the millions who take out life insurance for the benefit of their dependants despite the low probability of dying.

This meteorite thing. That tungusta hit was a real big one - I've seen a picture of rows of trees knocked over like from an A bomb. And someone said that if it had hit just slightly later London would have been walloped.

But recently:-

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,2171919,00.html


" Police who went to investigate the crater were also stricken with nausea"

Yep - long range radar's required methinks.

Well there's you meteor Rog. Good job it wasn't a big 'un eh?

quote:

Originally posted by Seskinreay:
Well there's you meteor Rog. Good job it wasn't a big 'un eh?

Reminds me of reading "the mighty fuze" by ralph balwin. they were testing fuzes by firing the gun straight up. H&S would have had a fit.

Anyrate the punters were somewhat scared running around the firing range so guess what alleviated their anxiety?

A piece of cardboard! Yep. They walked around holding a bit of cardboard over their heads. Is that psychological or what?!

Now for meteors I'd suggest holding something heavier...

quote:

" Police who went to investigate the crater were also stricken with nausea"

Rog would probably say it was all psychological, caused by the fear of being struck again...

The R58 silence is deafening !!

quote:

Originally posted by Seskinreay:
The R58 silence is deafening !!

Yeah I was wondering if I should try and replicate R58's style and content but it reminds me of Dennis Wheatley's warnings on the back cover of his Occult books.

quote:

Originally posted by realprimate:

quote:

Originally posted by Seskinreay:
The R58 silence is deafening !!

Yeah I was wondering if I should try and replicate R58's style and content but it reminds me of Dennis Wheatley's warnings on the back cover of his Occult books.

RP, Well I aped his(confrontational)style when he attacked me all those months ago. I get the impression he likes to dish it but can't take it. Something amiss in the psyche there I think

What does Wheatley warn of?

quote:

Originally posted by Lucibee:
Sesk - I've already answered that one several times (see mid-America denuding of trees, leads to climate change, people desert civilization with no signs of them just having moved and set up elsewhere).

To add another - but I'm not sure of the details - I'm pretty sure that the human race suffered near extinction a few tens of thousand years ago, which reduced us to just a few thousand individuals from whom we are all descended.

It's only very recently that we've occupied the Earth in large enough numbers, and with dirty and powerful enough technology, to have a substantial effect on the climate directly.

I think Rog is after a "climate catastrophe" that is not only caused by man, but was global, and pretty well identical to the sort of scenario we are all going on about. So he's out of luck. I expect he only believed that man could go to the moon once we'd been there, and even then thought it was some sort of massive conspiracy (oh I'm so looking forward to that new documentary...).

If I hang my washing out to dry and it starts raining that's a 'climate catastrophe'. Your not really sure about much at all are you Lucibee? And all your "probably"s' and convenient "I'm not sure of the details..." just keeps your fuzzy thinking messy enough for you to keep clinging hold of your nannyish demands. I'm not asking for you to give a global example of "climate catastrophe"... or even a man-made one. I simply keep asking for ANY example of a "climate catastrophe" that has occurred since homo-sapiens have been on the planet... NOT ecological changes but the "climate catastrophe" of the past you keep harping on about. Your repeated failure to come up with anything leads me to believe there has never been such a "climate catastrophe" and you're making it all up.

As for Meteors - I kinda wish I never mentioned it! I should of realised introducing another 'end-of-the-worldism' would bring all the Nannyists out of the woodwork!! - posting pictures of little holes in the ground in Peru as 'EVIDENCE' of Armageddon.

And purleeeez - try not to resort to playing the 'I'm doing this for my children' card... that's naff.

You are clearly illiterate as well as rude!!!

Oh - and I don't have any children...

quote:

Originally posted by Seskinreay:

quote:

Originally posted by realprimate:

quote:

Originally posted by Seskinreay:
The R58 silence is deafening !!

Yeah I was wondering if I should try and replicate R58's style and content but it reminds me of Dennis Wheatley's warnings on the back cover of his Occult books.

RP, Well I aped his(confrontational)style when he attacked me all those months ago. I get the impression he likes to dish it but can't take it. Something amiss in the psyche there I think

What does Wheatley warn of?

QUOTE
Should any of my readers incline to a serious study of the subject and come into contact with a man or woman of Power, I feel that it is only right to urge them, most strongly, to refrain from being drawn into any practice of the Secret Art in any way. My own observations have led me to an absolute conviction that to do so would bring them into dangers of a very real and concrete nature’
UNQUOTE

Apt or what? I ever see r58 I'll run away screaming.

quote:

Originally posted by realprimate:

quote:

Originally posted by Seskinreay:

quote:

Originally posted by realprimate:

quote:

Originally posted by Seskinreay:
The R58 silence is deafening !!

Yeah I was wondering if I should try and replicate R58's style and content but it reminds me of Dennis Wheatley's warnings on the back cover of his Occult books.

RP, Well I aped his(confrontational)style when he attacked me all those months ago. I get the impression he likes to dish it but can't take it. Something amiss in the psyche there I think

What does Wheatley warn of?

QUOTE
Should any of my readers incline to a serious study of the subject and come into contact with a man or woman of Power, I feel that it is only right to urge them, most strongly, to refrain from being drawn into any practice of the Secret Art in any way. My own observations have led me to an absolute conviction that to do so would bring them into dangers of a very real and concrete nature’
UNQUOTE

Apt or what? I ever see r58 I'll run away screaming.

After his last post to Lucibee, I don't need to see him, I'm off with my head under my arm !!

There's an article shortly to be published in
Proceedings of Royal Society B by Peter Mayhew et al (DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2007.1302) on the long-term association between global temperature change and mass extinction in the fossil record.

See also Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol 2004 on Climate change and evolving human diversity in Europe by Gamble et al. and Trends Ecol Evol 2007 on Rapid ecological turnover and its impact on Neanderthal and other human populations by Finlayson et al. The latter paper in particular makes a clear link between ecological and climate changes.

I saw the following in the Sunday Times today. Sounds like technology and planning are putting up a good fight against climate related disasters.

Weather deaths

Are the quoted statistics correct?

I just wish journalists would quote their sources and give a reference list, so that readers can check out their wild and oft-biased claims themselves!

Lucibee

quote:

I just wish journalists would quote their sources and give a reference list, so that readers can check out their wild and oft-biased claims themselves!

I tried to put a reference but the Gods intervened. So try to google "Civil Society Coalition on Climate Change" "extreme weather events" and click on 'Full Report' it's on page 5. Some interesting data, graphs and analysis.