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Two Gold Stars
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quote:
Yes they most certainly ARE complaining about over-dramatisation.

Statements such as

"It seems that we, the professional climate scientists, who are now the (catastrophe) sceptics"

And how about THIS :

"To state that climate change will be "catastrophic" hides a cascade of value-laden assumptions which do not emerge from empirical or theoretical science."


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6115644.stm


I assumed you were talking about Hardaker and Collier. This Hulme guy is commenting on the environmentalist movement (and Tony Blair as it happens) not climate scientist. Hence the "seems".

quote:
Hey....I keep being told to listen to what the experts are saying. Well.....I have done.

Of course....I'll now be told this guy is in league with the oil companies....blah....blah...blah....etc...or some other such crap.


I think WIYM will be telling you its time to go to bed.
 
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Four Silver Stars
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quote:
Originally posted by phlipper:
quote:
Originally posted by MindCrime:
I guess it depends who you ask.

If you ask someone who likes humans then they probably don't want the world to warm up much, given that it will cause so much inundation, crop failure and so ultimately forced migration and famine.

If you ask someone who doesn't like humans then they'll probably tell you that the world isn't meant to be this stable, it can't really support this many people and everyone will be much happier once the global population has dropped by 90% or so.

I guess you don't like humans much.

You scaremonger's feeble attempt at humor is actually laughable! Thanks, I needed that.


You're really jumping to concusions here and not taking the time to understand what I was saying.

I intended no humour in my post. There really is a genuine divide between people who value life as a whole (i.e. the biosphere) and those who value human life at the cost of others.

I am no scaremonger. I never said that climate change would kill 90% - I was referring to people such as James Lovelock who believes that the long-term sustainable human population is about 10% of current.

However, if you look at the threats to human life (just the ones we can predict) you have AIDS, malaria, influenza, drug-resistant TB & plague, water-poverty, energy-poverty, land-poverty, climate change . . .

It's hard to see how the growth of the industrial era (based on unsustainable use of medicine, energy, agriculture and water) can be maintained. That does lead to the suggestion that the long-term sustainable population would be no more than pre-industrial levels, or less than 20% of current.
 
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Four Silver Stars
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quote:
Originally posted by Chi Squared:
quote:
And where is your evidence that they coped well?


Er...hold on...it was you who argued they didn't. Thus it is for you to provide evidence of such.


You're wrong. It was in your second post on this thread:

quote:
Originally posted by Chi Squared:
Our ancestors coped with HUGE climate changes


Where is your evidence that they "coped" rather than just "survived"?
 
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Two Silver Stars
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quote:
Where is your evidence that they "coped" rather than just "survived"?


Er.....no....it was you who stated that " They died ( mostly )"

Now excuse me, but the difference between coping and surviving is considerably less than the difference between coping and being dead. People who are dead neither cope or survive......I think I can say that without having to qualify with a 90% confidence level.
 
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Two Silver Stars
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quote:

Er.....no.....it is more the case that claims that you know where all the CO2 in the atmosphere has come from are nonsense, thus you do NOT know what portion is man made. I am not aware of there being a little RFID tag on every carbon atom that says ' good carbon ' or ' nasty man made carbon '. Carbon is just carbon, and you have no idea whether it has come from man or from some deep sea hydrothermal vent among the thousands yet to be discovered.


Fascinating. If you can write that in the form of a scientific paper and get it past peer review, I might just take it seriously.

But you would have to do a lot to convince a community that has used carbon dating for decades that the very principle essential to carbon dating, a red lable on the carbon saying exactly when and how the carbon got there (otherwise known as Carbon 14 %age) does not exist.
quote:
The estimate that man has put 240 billion metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere is just that.....an ESTIMATE. Nobody has been standing there with a measuring guage at every factory or home.

So we have starting figures that are an estimate, baseline rates ( what the climate would be without the CO2 ) that are an estimate, increase rates that are an estimate, projected rates that are an estimate, other contributing factors that are an estimate...........and yet you're telling me that you have every single CO2 molecule tagged as to its impact over and above a mean alternative climate that is iteself also an estimate !

The word 'codswallop' springs to mind.


And once again we have nothing more than denial.

(Can't possibly estimate amount of CO2 released, can we?)

3 ways.

1) by directly measuring the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere less the amount attributable to all other natural sources. These measurments can be done and if we use a reasonably accurate assumption that CO2 density is uniform around the world (surface area of the globe [= 4/3 pi r^3] * average measured density per unit hight * hight of atomsphere) and we do similar calculations with all the natural CO2 sources, we get a crude figure that will be increasingly accurate depending on how well we take our measurments.

2) Same as above, except we use the Carbon 14 isotope to directly measure exactly what %age of CO2 occured naturally and what %age occured through the burning of [millions of years old] fossil fuels.

3) We simply calculate how much fuel has been burned efficiently and how much inefficiently. Elementary molar calculations can tell us exactly how much CO2 is released from a known mass of fuel for efficient and innefficient burning. It's now just a question of working out the mass of each fuel burned efficiently and innefficiently.

We can distinguish between efficient and innefficient simply by knowing the make and model of the burners. We can work out how much of that fuel goes to each type of burner each year by working out how much overall fuel has been burned that year and the ratio of efficient to innefficient burners that year. The errors are most likely to come from the latter factor, but as infrustructure does not change quickly, changes over a year can be approximated to linear, so a single calculation each year should be enough to get a very good result.

All that's left now is calculating how much fuel of each type of fuel is burned by each country. But energy deals are not exactly a state secret. Hey presto, we have a value which can be very accuarate.

So, Science being what it is, I would assume it has at least considered both methods, and if they both work (ie survive peer review), or other methods are discovered, then science will try them all until all methods used reach the same answer.


You need a more open mind about what science can and cannot do.

quote:
Which Hollywood movie was that in ?


No movie, the Stern report written by one of Britains leading economists.

quote:
Aren't you being a bit elitist in your psychic assumptions? By the way, I hope your money's not invested with the economic experts' advice. Gambling on the advice from economic experts is almost as bad as betting trillions of taxpayers' dollars on a scheme to control the weather.


Logical fallacy of equivication. Economists do not actually gamble on stocks and shares; that's done by brokers and stock traders on the advice of analysists who are not members of the economic accademic community.

It's not so much that you have misunderstood an economic principle, it's that you have misunderstood the principle of economics.

quote:
Where is your evidence that they "coped" rather than just "survived"?


quote:
Er.....no....it was you who stated that " They died ( mostly )"

Now excuse me, but the difference between coping and surviving is considerably less than the difference between coping and being dead. People who are dead neither cope or survive......I think I can say that without having to qualify with a 90% confidence level.


This is not the first time you've done this.

You bang on and on about how science has not got enough evidence and how you require a full presentation of all the evidence despite that you will have no chance of understanding it.

Then, when that evidence is presented, you bang on about how the scientific method can never really know anything.

Then you make an outrageous claim.

And when somebody asks YOU for evidence, they get .... nothing. Empty set [dry science joke you will not understand]. The most you ever give to justify what is essentially a scientific claim is a WITTY response (or at least HALF of one) with no back bone.
 
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Two Silver Stars
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'Real Scientist'

If your every posts was not simply an attempt to show how well your Google skills are honed to finding what information you want to find.......I might actually take you more seriously.
 
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Four Silver Stars
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Chi: Are you actually criticising someone for presenting too much data?
 
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Two Silver Stars
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No.....I'm criticising him because he has that James Randi style ' I'm right......nanananana' attitude to what is actually a very complex issue.

I can only assume that the 'real science' he studies is the make up of Big Macs.

TRUE real scientists do not adopt that smug, arrogant attitude.

Plus I hate being lectured on science by someone who knows less about it than I do.
 
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Four Silver Stars
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quote:
Originally posted by Chi Squared:
TRUE real scientists do not adopt that smug, arrogant attitude.

Don't presume to dictate what "real" scientist can and can't say. They are people with just as much variety of approach as any other group of people.

If you understand the science better than RS then pick a point of contention, find some references to support your case and help to put RS right. That way you'll be doing him a favour by educating him.

If you're not willing to do that then SHUT UP!
 
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Two Silver Stars
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Oh for God's sake............the last post precisely shows the mentality of the smug, self righteous, arrogant AGW supporters.
 
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Four Silver Stars
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How exactly is asking you to engage with the science, to actually discuss and debate it, smug, self-righteous or arrogant?

And how can asking you to have a little sensitivity and realise that scientists are not Spock-like robots but are actually real people trying to do their best be smug, self-righteous or arrogant?
 
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Two Silver Stars
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That smugness is shown by the action of someone coming on as 'real scientist' in the first place. I must say that with such lousy spelling I would not want to be so smug, but clearly the message is ' I am a scientist and I know it all and you don't'

Well of course.....it then transpires ( in his own words ) that 'real scientist' is not a scientist of atmospheric physics, or even a scientist who knows about the issue from having studied it. He's just a guy who got a degree at Oxford. Whoopeee do ! I hear Macdonalds are looking for graduates to check out the CO2 content of their burgers......first hand. It's a sizzling environment.

So excuse me for failing to be impressed just because someone knows how to type the URL for Google.
 
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Two Silver Stars
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quote:
How exactly is asking you to engage with the science, to actually discuss and debate it, smug, self-righteous or arrogant?


It is self righteous and arrogant when you fail to grasp that that is just exactly what I HAVE been doing. Not that your James Randi mentality would recognise such.
 
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Four Silver Stars
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I can't believe you're attacking him for his username! And you have the cheek to accuse me of ad hominem argument?

I'll repeat what I said above:
quote:
Originally posted by MindCrime:
If you understand the science better than RS then pick a point of contention, find some references to support your case and help to put RS right. That way you'll be doing him a favour by educating him.

That's not that hard is it?
 
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Four Silver Stars
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quote:
Originally posted by Chi Squared:
quote:
How exactly is asking you to engage with the science, to actually discuss and debate it, smug, self-righteous or arrogant?


It is self righteous and arrogant when you fail to grasp that that is just exactly what I HAVE been doing.


No, it may be mistaken but it isn't arrogant or self-righteous. It is my honest belief that you have not been fully debating the scientific questions. Why not prove me wrong in this thread?

quote:

Not that your James Randi mentality would recognise such.

I have no idea what you are talking about
 
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Two Silver Stars
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quote:
Originally posted by Chi Squared:
No.....I'm criticising him because he has that James Randi style ' I'm right......nanananana'

I like James Randi's style and I like Chi Squared's style.....What's not to like about the "Amazing Randi"? He is a true "de-bunker". Has he entered the GW fray?
 
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Two Silver Stars
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LOL !

I have at every opportunity provided so-called 'real scientist' with the science. But it's sort of like trying to get through to Terminator. He's on a mission.....on a roll....sort of Queen type ' Don't stop me now '.

So I figure that one would get more scientific response out of a brick wall.
 
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Four Silver Stars
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OK, I'll review your comments and be sure to let you know if I change my opinion (that may sound arrogant Eek but I'm sure you'd rather I owned up if I'm being unfair).

But I find it very surprising that you are so quick to accuse others of ad hominem argument in the same breath as you are attacking real scientist.
 
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Three Silver Stars
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I think it would be informative to discuss which species would decline and which would thrive in a generally warmer world or just different world.

I was pleased to hear that Polar bears are unlikely to suffer as they have survived happily previous interglacial warm periods.

Would Penguins disappear?

Is the loss of species a bad thing - what will happen is that evolution will favour varients of animals, say Penguins,
that can survive warmer/drier/wetter climbs and new species will evolve.

If species die out then other will come to fill the gaps.

This is neither a bad or good thing.
 
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One Silver Star
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Mubbers
Polar bears show some interesting population dynamics. Most populations are stable, 3 are increasing in number and 3 are declining (overall not much change). However, the increasing populations are in the areas showing warming and the declining populations in areas showing cooling.

Obviously they are a terrible marker species for climate change anyway, as they are a large predator at the top of the food chain, so populations will be affected by a number of factors.

Also, all other things being equal, an increase in CO2 would generally be beneficial for ecosystems. Obviously, temperature stresses and more especially rainfall changes will have significant effects that will swamp the CO2 fertilisation effects.

Historically, warmer weather has been better for humanity than cooler, based on historic and archaeological evidence from Europe and North Africa (Roman period was warm and allowed the growth of civilisation; subsequent Dark Ages were cold). Again, warm and fairly wet can be coped with/adapted to easily, hot and dry gives serious problems.
 
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Two Silver Stars
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quote:
OK, I'll review your comments and be sure to let you know if I change my opinion (that may sound arrogant but I'm sure you'd rather I owned up if I'm being unfair).

But I find it very surprising that you are so quick to accuse others of ad hominem argument in the same breath as you are attacking real scientist.


Well that's amusing, as 'real scientist' has wasted no time attacking others.....myself included. Indeed, my attitude towards him is largely a RESULT of such attack.

This entire issue is frought with emotionalism and personal feeling on the matter. It should come as no great surprise that the debate gets heated.

I just wish people would stop making assumptions that are not warranted from what I have said. I have never said the AGW position is not true............I simply dare to question it.
 
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Four Silver Stars
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quote:
Originally posted by Chi Squared:
Well that's amusing, as 'real scientist' has wasted no time attacking others.....myself included. Indeed, my attitude towards him is largely a RESULT of such attack.

That is fair enough and RS should be criticised for such attacks but if you sink to his level then you will be ignored or ridiculed.

And that does not give you an excuse to swear at me (even disguised) or make other personal comments.

quote:

This entire issue is frought with emotionalism and personal feeling on the matter.

All the more reason to be careful not to escalate it.

quote:

I just wish people would stop making assumptions that are not warranted from what I have said.


As I said, I'll check that I'm not being unfair. But if you start attacking people because of their username how can you possibly expect to be taken seriously?

quote:
I have never said the AGW position is not true............I simply dare to question it.

I realise that (honestly, I did) but (from what I can remember) you do have a very abrupt way of changing the subject and a tendency to not respond to other people's questions or responses. It comes across as not being genuinely interested in debate.
 
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One Silver Star
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Some interesting reading relating to this issue and the economics of climate management v adaptation, from Lomborg to the US gov today (countering the Gore hysteria)

Lomborg testimony
 
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