Originally posted by Son of Mulder:
RealPrimate
quote:
Steady on you two! I'm still recovering from LIKW's "Antarctica is cooling" remark.
But not bad SoM (seemingly). Pause for thought anyway. Apart from Coby Beck's stuff here's another list of myth debunkers.
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn11462
Here's my point by point, potted analysis of the new Scientist misconceptions
1. Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter
Agree this critique is true and agree increase in CO2 is due to humans plus some from ocean because of recent warming. Co2 will have some effect but how major?
2. We can't do anything about climate change
This is all about CO2 with no mention of geo-engineering if necessary
3. The 'hockey stick' graph has been proven wrong
It ended in 1998 and temperature has not risen since then. The article admits the uncertainties about MWP and reconstructions.
4. Chaotic systems are not predictable
I have no problem with the thrust of this analysis of the limitations of modelling chaotic systems but if the model excludes an item or has an item wrong then no amount of rerunning with changed starting conditions will give a valid conclusion.
5. We can't trust computer models of climate
See above Plus it states that The validity of models can be tested against climate history but as with the hockey stick argument the history is uncertain and open to significant debate eg MWP, Little Ice age are recent examples.
6. They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
And got it wrong. So why shouldn't they get it wrong again? I'm sure it helped encourage industrial clean-up similar to how the current scare is urging diverse and more sustainable long-term energy planning.
7. It's been far warmer in the past, what's the big deal?
Item starts "First of all, it is worth bearing in mind that any data on global temperatures before about 150 years ago is an estimate, a reconstruction based on second-hand evidence such as ice cores and isotopic ratios. The evidence becomes sparser
the further back we look, and its interpretation often involves a set of assumptions.In other words, a fair amount of guesswork."
Nuff said.
8. It's too cold where I live - warming will be great
I don't see this as relevant to whether we have anthropogenic warming or not.
9. Global warming is down to the Sun, not humans
No mention of recent intensification of magnetic storms and associated joule heating. Otherwise could be a more subtle effect as combined with cosmic rays, solar wind and cloud formation.
10. It’s all down to cosmic rays
Reads like the jury is out on this one at present.
11. CO2 isn't the most important greenhouse gas
No issue with the thrust of this article but it is the basics of greenhouse gas theory and distinguishing forcings from feedbacks. It does touch on the overlap and saturation of IR absorption which would reduce the overall effectiveness of the green house process if proportions of CO2 and water vapour increase. However my scepticism arises from all the points as I accept basic CO2 greenhouse process. eg if it wasn't for convection and removal of latent heat of evapouration the planet would be much much warmer than now so straight CO2 theory is only a part of the picture.
12. The lower atmosphere is cooling, not warming
Just shows how much we can't trust measurements even with all the modern technology and peer review of papers. What else can't we trust about accepted conclusions in other areas of climate study? yet despite this it goes on to say "There is still some ambiguity in the tropics, where most measurements show the surface warming faster than the upper troposphere, whereas the models predict faster warming of the atmosphere. However, this is a minor discrepancy." What like the models are wrong?
13. Antarctica is getting cooler, not warmer, disproving global warming
So if it's getting cooler in Antarctica then it must be getting warmer somewhere else.So we have cooling caused bt CFC's at Antarctica and hence contributing to heating elsewhere. Doesn't sound like CO2 to me.
14. The oceans are cooling
Ah so they can't measure the ocean temperatures correctly as well. My confidence grows and grows.
15. The cooling after 1940 shows CO2 does not cause warming
So it was aerosols which have since been reduced in the west (but with increased with industrialisation in the east may I point out). Hence a significant change in the balance of effect which would cause regional climate chanmge without any need for CO2.
Oh and it goes on to say "Climate scientists acknowledge that the aerosol issue is one of the key uncertainties in their understanding", so thay parameterise it in the models.
16. It was warmer during the Medieval period, with vineyards in England.
Sounds like it was warm back then, even the treelines moved north. Not convinced by the London bridge argument about why we didn't have a mini-ice age in 1600's.
"The slowing of water flow by the old London Bridge is now seen as a crucial factor in the freezing of the river, which explains why the river did not freeze in 1963 even though it was the third-coldest winter in England since 1659."
How did this also cause other major rivers in Europe to freeze then and not now?
17. We are simply recovering from the Little Ice Age
Nothing additional for this item.
18. Warming will cause an ice age in Europe
Maybe it will maybe it won't but this is irrelevant to whether CO2 is causing significant warming.
19. Ice cores show CO2 increases lag behind temperature rises, disproving the link to global warming
This seems true historically but it is not logical to conclude this is a necessary condition. So not a valid argument against AGW.
20. Ice cores show CO2 rising as temperatures fell
Again this is quite consistent with CO2 being released from the oceans during heating and because of a lag in cooling the oceans so CO2 can continue to rise. So not a valid argument against AGW.
21. Mars and Pluto are warming too
Could be a coincidence or could be some other effect eg electromagnetic / solar wind interaction but who knows yet?
22. Many leading scientists question climate change
I should hope scientists do question the accepted view. That's what scientists are meant to do.
23. It's all a conspiracy
I'd go no further than citing group think and political lobbying have some influence on some people.
24. Hurricane Katrina was caused by global warming
No comment on this but irrelevant to the cause of any global warming.
25. Higher CO2 levels will boost plant growth and food production
Maybe it will maybe it won't. Not relevant to the causes of any global warming.
26. Polar bear numbers are increasing
All I can hypothesise from this article is that there is a nonzero probability that intense studying of Polar Bear populations may cause them to reduce.
