This week we have had Cameron praising Blair for recognising the needs of the UK in the 90s and promising to carry on the good work himself.
Cameron seems to believe that he can compete for votes in the same area as Blair but he is wrong and naive.
New Labour is still Labour, it just has a different strategy to Old Labour. The Tories' best bet is to still be Tories not mimics of New Labour.
Brown has systematically driven or encouraged more and more people to either take jobs linked to the state sector or be subsidised in education & training by the state. He has made many of the post 1997 generation beholden to this government for their livelihood. These are his hostages for the next election. Cameron is actually helping him if he feels that he should not alienate this vote by threatening to cut back on state intervention.
Some people argue that the new jobs give back their investment in better services and through income tax. Yet many of these newly created jobs are low paid. Many are so low paid that they qualify a person for additional benefits. Many of the jobs are simply non-productive administrative jobsworth posts.
Then there is that proportion of the working population who are paying taxes but not receiving benefits while perceiving that services like the NHS, transport and education are not improving despite all the extra investments. Since 1997 New Labour has also needed the goodwill of the middle classes for votes and to finance those investments. Only last night Hewitt was crowing again about the money ploughed into the NHS.
One thing is for certain, if the economy uses up its slack at the rate it has done since 1997 to finance non-productive 'feel good' investment then Brown's tactic cannot last much longer.
Whether any of this is true though is largely irrelevant. What matters is what people think is true. By the time of the next election these two views could well be as polarised to left and right as they ever were. The "centre" may shrink away and Cameron could be left with egg on his face and no majority. Brown could be left with his core vote desperate to hang on to the New Labour version of the welfare state.
The end result of all this could be a government that has the lowest percentage vote ever.
Brown will have to put up taxes, cut spending or give up his already-tarnished Golden Rule.
Cameron knows that as soon as he announces tax cuts, Labour will accuse him of destroying the NHS etc etc. So it's better if he doesn't announce anything of the sort.
As for what he'll actually do, your guess is as good as mine.
I think you right anon . People who say labour have shifted to the right may want to look into things in a bit more depth. I think the latest figure is 6 million working for the Government!!
Originally posted by Winston Smith: Brown will have to put up taxes, cut spending or give up his already-tarnished Golden Rule.
Cameron knows that as soon as he announces tax cuts, Labour will accuse him of destroying the NHS etc etc. So it's better if he doesn't announce anything of the sort.
As for what he'll actually do, your guess is as good as mine.
Good point - he is hamstrung in what he can promise just now but what about in an election manifesto? People are not going to accept the same manifesto from both parties so eventually he will have to say something.
If Brown promises to keep spending (and I think the figure of 6m working for the state is right) then Cameron cannot match that without increasing taxes. Brown certainly can promise it because his core voters don't pay taxes!
There is no appeal to the centre ground because there will be no centre - only those who take their living from the state and those who don't. Cameron will have to decide which he wants because he can't have both.
Originally posted by Anonimouse: If Brown promises to keep spending (and I think the figure of 6m working for the state is right) then Cameron cannot match that without increasing taxes. Brown certainly can promise it because his core voters don't pay taxes!
It is testament to the strength of the Tories destroy the NHS myth that Brown's stealth tax rises could be interpreted as Tories cutting services.
quote:
There is no appeal to the centre ground because there will be no centre - only those who take their living from the state and those who don't.
Take or make, but good point.
There are presumably still more people employed privately though.
There are but of course there are people employed privately whose incomes are boosted by state benefits. They count on the "state" side of the equation - Brown's hostages.
Originally posted by Anonimouse: There are but of course there are people employed privately whose incomes are boosted by state benefits. They count on the "state" side of the equation - Brown's hostages.
Your point is so valid that I'd be interested to see the numbers.
Originally posted by Anonimouse: ...then Cameron cannot match that without increasing taxes. Brown certainly can promise it because his core voters don't pay taxes!
What rubbish. That Labour's "core voters don't pay taxes!
Originally posted by Anonimouse: ...If Brown promises to keep spending (and I think the figure of 6m working for the state is right) then Cameron cannot match that without increasing taxes. Brown certainly can promise it because his core voters don't pay taxes!...
I am a Labour "core voter". I pay taxes. Kindly therefore go shove your arrogant stereotyping where the sun don't shine.
With respect to you both Jeremy and C14 I would guess you are not Brown's core voters. (You will have noted I didn't say Labour's core voters. ) Brown's hostages are those who owe him their livelihood. That's not stereo or any other typing - just simple extrapolation from the facts.
Originally posted by Anonimouse: With respect to you both Jeremy and C14 I would guess you are not Brown's core voters. (You will have noted I didn't say Labour's core voters. ) Brown's hostages are those who owe him their livelihood. That's not stereo or any other typing - just simple extrapolation from the facts.
I consider it bad sportsmanship to beat me on a technicality like that
) Brown's hostages are those who owe him their livelihood. That's not stereo or any other typing - just simple extrapolation from the facts.
